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Calculating The Risk

by Roy Cooke |  Published: Mar 05, 2014


Good players understand the importance of obtaining value from their hands. But few have enough conceptual proficiency to understand how assumption of risk affects the value equation. Any risks you assume need to be calculated into the expected value (EV) equation. Fail to do that, and you’ll repeatedly miscalculate. I was up early on a Saturday morning and meandered down to the Bellagio for a little $40-$80 limit hold’em. The game was ablaze, with many players lingering from the night before. Vahe, a local high quality pro, raised under-the-gun (UTG) plus one and was called by three tourists behind him. In the small blind (SB), I glanced down to the 7 7 and flipped in the extra $60. The big blind (BB) called, and we took the flop six-handed for $80 each, $480 in the pot. I flopped bottom set, A J 7, and contemplated my best play with my ...

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