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Practical Probability — Part XI

Two chances to get lucky

by Steve Zolotow |  Published: Jun 22, 2009

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In my last column, I left you with a little homework. I hope that you tried to solve the problems, since it is enlightening to see if you can calculate the correct answers. If you didn’t do them, try them now. Even if you don’t actually do the calculations, try to think through the process that leads to the solution and approximate the answer. In both problems, you had to determine the chance of someone hitting a perfect card on both the turn and the river. (Hint: These are dependent events.) 1. You are way ahead after the flop in a hold’em hand. You get knocked out of a tournament when your opponent sucks out, as usual, hitting a heart on the turn and a heart on the river to make a flush. Assuming that you don’t have any hearts, what is the chance of your opponent making a flush? ...


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