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Chances Are: Part VIII: An Effective Bluff

by Steve Zolotow |  Published: Nov 27, 2013


Math is a very good servant, but a very poor master. When you use math correctly, it will frequently guide you to making the correct play. Do not, however, become a slave to math. Poker is very situational, and there are many situations in which you must throw the math out the window and focus on what is actually happening at the table. In the last column, which discussed methods of combining chances when more than one event must occur, we discussed why it is usually wrong to bluff multiple opponents. To recapitulate: when there is only one opponent, you have to estimate the chance of his folding compared to the pot. For example, if you make a pot-sized bet, your risk of losing a pot-sized bet and your gain, winning the pot, are equal. If he folds more than half the time you will show a profit. Let’s say ...

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