Designing Plays According to Your Opponents’ Weaknesses

Good players create plays based on their opponents’ tendencies. They carefully observe their opponents, analyze the characteristics of their play, and structure their own plays that fit the combination of their opponents’ individual plays and the current situation. Some plays have no value against certain types of opponents, yet are highly valuable against different types. Good players ascertain the difference and make positive-value plays that average players can’t make.

Saturday night at Bellagio, I was deep into playing a highly passive $40-$80 limit hold’em game. A loose-passive player limped up front, and I tossed in a bet from the cutoff position with the Q J. The button folded, and the small blind — an incredibly passive player who called often, yet seldom raised — raised the pot. In previous hands, he raised preflop only with big pairs or A-K. The big blind, the limper, and I all called, and we took the flop four-handed.

The flop came A J 8, furnishing me with second pair, a second-nut backdoor-flush draw, and a backdoor-straight draw. Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser fired into the field, folding the big blind and limper. With $360 in the pot, what was my best play?

I thought about my opponent’s range of hands. In previous hands, he had check-called big pairs when an overcard hit, consistent with his mindset of betting very solidly and rarely, though calling often. Assuming he was playing consistently with his previous style, the fact that he was betting put almost all of his range as A-A, J-J, or A-K. Anything different would be outside of any previous characteristics I had seen from him. He hadn’t raised preflop previously with A-Q suited when in position, and his previous wired-pair plays made me think that my read was probably accurate. I’m not saying something different wasn’t possible, but I did think it was very unlikely.

What to do? There were three combinations of A-A available to my opponent, one of J-J, and 12 of A-K. Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser was 4-12 (or 1-3; 25 percent) to have flopped a set, given the range I’d put him on, producing a situation in which I would be drawing very slim. That said, the other 75 percent of the time, when my opponent held A-K, I would be just over a 3-1 underdog, assuming I took my hand to the river and he didn’t hold A-K with the K. Blending, I was probably about a 3.5-1 dog.

I could call the flop getting $360-$40 and see what happened. If I improved, I should receive additional value. If he bet the turn, which was highly likely, I could call the additional $80, depending on what came, but that call would be weak in the scenarios in which I had five wins, at best. I pondered other plausible plays. I hadn’t seen Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser three-bet a raiser on the flop with only one pair, even if he held the nut kicker. If I raised, I thought he would reraise only if he had flopped a set.

I hypothesized that if I raised the flop, he would reraise with a set and flat-call with one pair. If he reraised, I could throw my hand away, confident I was drawing very slim. If he flat-called, he would check the turn. I could bet if I improved or take a free card if I didn’t. I had some thought that he might flat-call a set and check-raise the turn. If I improved and he made that play, I could safely throw my hand away. Yeah, I put in $80 dead the times I folded to a reraise — maybe more if Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser made a trap-play — but I could make up that lost equity in the scenarios I was drawing live, improved, received additional action on my improved hand, and won the pot.

I raised Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser and was encouraged he flat-called. The turn came the 9. He checked, and I knuckled behind him. The river came the 10, filling one of my backdoor-straight draws. Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser seemed agitated that I had checked the turn, knowing that he had missed some bets, and was reacting emotionally, virtually in the process of betting the river before he even saw the river card. I raised his wager. He seemed even more emotionally frustrated when he double-checked the board and paid me off. I turned over my straight, and he showed me the A K to inform me of what a bad beat I had put on him.

I had netted $560 after the scenario had played out almost perfectly for me, receiving 6-1 on my flop raise. That said, the hand didn’t have to play out the way it did. I had assumed risks that would actualize themselves in different scenarios that didn’t manifest themselves in this specific situation. That assumption of risks, while hard to quantify, definitely lowered my true odds.

The play was close, mathematically, but I also gained psychological advantages as his frustration with me detonated. He played more hands against me and played them shoddier. I don’t think I made his Christmas-card list with the play.

The hand speaks to reading your opponents’ hand ranges and adjusting your play to exploit the circumstances that you decipher. This guy had made himself an easy read, playing his hands in a very narrow range, unaware that some of his opponents were reading his holdings accurately and therefore making high-quality plays against him. I couldn’t have made this play had I not been confident that my read was accurate. Had I been less sure of Mr. Tight Preflop Raiser’s hand range, I would have had to receive a larger price from the pot to make up for the additional times the play would have been incorrect.

So, take note of your opponents’ characteristics. Think how best to counter them. You’ll make a lot more positive-EV bets over the course of time, and the more positive-EV bets you make, the more moolah is gonna be in your pocket! ♠

Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate broker/salesman in 1989. Should you wish to obtain any information about Real Estate matters — including purchases, sales, or mortgages — his office number is 702-396-6575 and his e-mail address is RealtyAce@aol.com. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook.