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Thoughts On Game Theory: Part Seven

by Steve Zolotow |  Published: Oct 09, 2019


In the last column we looked at the ratio of bluffs to value bets for various bet sizes and the minimum defensive frequency (how often you must call to prevent your opponent from profitably betting any two cards) according to game theory. Let’s review the theory for a pot-sized bet on the river, and then discuss some traps and situations where knowing game theory is only the first step to making good decisions. I use a pot-sized bet in these examples not only because it is a common bet size, but because many games like Omaha are played pot-limit, so in these games it is the maximum bet you can make. Game theorists have calculated that when making a pot-sized bet on the river, you should have twice as many value bets as bluffs. Thus for 100 pot-sized bets, 67 percent should be value bets and 33 percent should be ...

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