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Coping with Complexity

by Alan Schoonmaker |  Published: Feb 05, 2014


For the past few years I’ve worried about the economy and my investments. The stock market’s crash and recovery, the even greater collapse in home prices, the severe recession and continuing high unemployment, the enormous and growing national debt, and so on have really scared me. To ease my fears, I’ve spent more time studying economics and finance than at any other time. Unfortunately, the more I read, the more confused and frightened I became. Expert A said that the stock or real estate market would go up. Expert B said it would go down. Expect C said we were heading for severe inflation. Expert D said deflation was imminent. Expert E said interest rates were going up. Expert F said interest rates would remain low. Expert G said, “Buy gold.” Expert H said, “Sell gold.” And they all made plausible arguments. At least, they sounded plausible to me. Since ...

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