A Really Great Card?

I had just finished a losing session in $300-$600 in a tough game at Aria. (I’m sure I need to do some work on badacey and badeucey!) As I was leaving the poker room, a slight acquaintance tried to borrow a five hundred dollar stake. I was hesitant to loan him anything since I didn’t know him that well, I had just lost and I was going back to New York City in a few days. Sensing my hesitation, he said, “I’m playing great, but I’ve been really unlucky – let me tell you my last hand.”

“It was folded to me on the button with A Q and I raised to $20. The big blind called. We both had around $500. The flop was Q J 2. He checked, I bet $30, he raised to $100, I reraised to $300 and he went all-in.”

I said that this wasn’t unreasonable. He could easily have the best hand and the best draw. I thought the only hand that would make him a big dog was a set of deuces, since his opponent would have reraised preflop with a pair of queens or jacks.

He continued, “We turned up our hands and he had Q-J offsuit. The turn was a really great card for me, the king of clubs. But, of course, the river was a brick. I’m busted and could use a little help.”

Luckily he had given me an opportunity to give him some advice instead of a loan. Television commentators and some columnists (yes even in Card Player) refer to the king of clubs as a good card, since it gave him extra outs. On the flop, he could take the lead with one of nine hearts or three aces – 12 outs. The king of clubs added two kings and three tens to his outs – 17 outs. Was this really a great card? Was it even a good card? Well it certainly wasn’t a disaster like a queen or jack. It was even better than a clearly bad card like the 4. But was it good? To me, with the money all-in, any card that increases my chance of winning is good and any card that doesn’t can’t be good. Does the king of clubs raise his chance of winning?

It absolutely does not. He went from having what is sometimes referred to as twelve outs twice to having seventeen outs once. Not a very good deal. Before the flop his A-Q suited was about a 74-26 favorite, almost 3-to-1. After the flop, he dropped to small underdog, 45-55, about a 6-to-5 underdog. After the king of clubs on the turn, his equity dropped down to 39-61. Now, he was more than a 3-to-2 underdog. I don’t care what the announcers and/or the columnist say. Any card that decreases my chance of winning or causes my equity to go down is a bad card. The next time you hear someone say, “that was a good turn because he picked up some extra outs…” Ask yourself, “Did it increase his chance of winning?”

My final words were, “I’m late to meet a friend, but if you think the king of clubs was a great card, you need to rethink your game. Don’t ask me again until you understand what I’m talking about!” ♠

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s at Houston and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.