Be Afraid … Be Very Afraid!

It's fitting that I write this column as Halloween approaches, because scary things happen all the time in poker – like losing to the one guy at the table whom everyone else is beating like a drum, or having the only card in the deck that can beat you on the river hit the board and rob you of a gigantic pot. So, when I was sitting in a game recently and someone asked me, "What do you think is the scariest flop in hold'em?" I decided October was the perfect time to write this column.

The scariest flop? To me, the answer is easy: K-Q-J with two of the same suit. I'm not sure I can think of a hand with which I'd feel completely comfortable with this flop – not even A-10 (OK, A-10 suited for a four-flush, but still not completely).

Most people enter hold'em pots with big cards, so let's see what we might be up against.

Any ace has a redraw for a tie, as does any 10. I want these draws in there, for sure, if I'm holding A-10.

Pocket kings, pocket queens, or pocket jacks are a very small dog against a made straight, having already made a set. And if those hands are out there, you probably had to call a raise preflop. If so, what were you doing calling with A-10? What can you beat – A-9? At the very worst, if the A-10 straight is also a four-flush, the sets are not that big an underdog and they are definitely calling.

Then there are K-Q, K-J, and Q-J. These all flop two pair and have full-house implications. While these hands are a big underdog to your A-10 straight, you'll get action from them.

How about the nut straight against just a plain old flush draw? Yes, flush draws are out there, too, and they are probably getting pot odds to call unless you're heads up. Let's take a look at the 10-9 straight: How many ways can you be trapped with this hand? Well, the A-10 can already be out, and any A-X wins if a 10 hits (or 10-X if the ace hits). And, of course, the flush hitting would kill the straight, and the board pairing could do the same.

Don't get me wrong, I'll take the A-10, but there really isn't any hand with which I'd have complete comfort with a K-Q-J flop. That's why I call it the scariest flop in hold'em.

From big dog to favorite: You have A-Q suited and your opponent has Q-J suited. Preflop, the A-Q suited is about a 2.3-1 favorite to win the hand.

Now, the flop comes 10-9-4 with two of the same suit as the Q-J, giving him a flush draw and open-end straight draw. The odds now almost completely reverse; even though the A-Q suited is still in the lead, the Q-J suited now will win almost two out of every three hands after that flop. Sometimes the look on a player's face after a flop like that is enough to scare you

Scariest question I'm asked: As a tournament director, I'm often asked various rules questions. The question that really scares me occurs when a player is moved from a broken table to one where the big blind will be his next.

"Can I post behind the button? I just took the big blind at the table that broke. I post behind the button every day in live play, why not here?"

Of course, in a tournament, you always have to be dealt in as long as you still have chips. So, why is this question the scariest I hear? Because I hear it in big buy-in events, not just $50 or $100 buy-in events. My question is, how can anyone enter a big buy-in event without knowing the rules? My friends, I know poker is exploding and you want in on some of the great action, but please get enough information to have a great experience.

We all know that poker tournaments have exploded over the last two years as a result of all the TV coverage, but the size of the peripheral explosion is also scary, and so much bigger than I ever expected. I'll cover that in another column. Until then, come and join us.

Warren Karp is a consultant to www.TruePoker.com, and you can ask him questions on the forum of his website at www.PokerMD.com.