Poker is a game of decision making using incomplete information, and we theoretically gain anytime our opponents play their hands differently than they would have otherwise had they known what we held.
In Draw variants we can manipulate our opponent’s impression of our holding through the number of cards we replace, however this can come at the cost of reducing (or even possibly eliminating) our chances of improving.
Archie is five-card Triple Draw high-low split with an eight-or-below qualifier for low, and depending on the rules your specific game, at least a pair of sixes or nines for high. Three-of-a-kind is a strong starting hand as it will often win the high side without improvement and can scoop when no one makes a qualifying low.
On the first betting round we should raise or reraise for value and to also limit the field to increase our chances of winning the entire pot. However, if we play our trips strongly and then draw two, observant opponents will know the nature of our holding and play well against it.
A simple solution is to draw one to include trips with two pair holdings and one-card draws (e.g. 2-3-5-6 or Q♣J♣9♣3♣) that we probably would have played in the same aggressive manner. When drawing two we possibly allow opponents to get away from weaker high hands, but when it’s possible we just have a draw or middling two pair they will often go the entire way even with just a single high pair.
There also isn’t a large opportunity cost to only taking one card as the odds of improving are reasonably similar:
| Draw One | Draw Two | |
| Quads | 2.1% | 4.3% |
| Full House | 6.4% | 6.1% |
| 8.5% | 10.4% |
While the odds of making quads are halved, making a full house is slightly more likely and often enough to win especially with high trips. But while this deception is usually a worthwhile endeavor, it shouldn’t be an automatic play in all circumstances.
For example, if the action is folded to us on the button and we open with trips and get called by the big blind, we should always draw two as there are plenty of hands such as A♣3♦5♣ or a high three-flush in our range. We can then take one on the second draw mimicking a situation where we improved but may not yet have a holding that can be taken to showdown.
In three-bet pots where we start out drawing one, we should switch to two when getting check-raised on the turn and our opponent stands pat. The times we are up against just a low it doesn’t matter what we do, but if they have a made high hand, we should give ourselves the maximum chance to outdraw it. They will still bet their flushes on the river since trips must pay off, and don’t worry about them folding to raises when filling up because they probably won’t.
Attempting to disguise trips should also be abandoned in large multi-way affairs where a raising war could break out at any time and the final pot will often be enormous. Consider a hand where we three-bet an early position opener with three nines, collect two calls behind us, the small blind makes it four bets cold, and everyone calls. Even if the small blind is not pat, it’s in our best interest to draw two as any increased chances of improving is worth it even if it makes our hand face up.
The small blind could have higher trips in which case doubling the chances of making quads becomes very meaningful. And given this volume action often including low draws, the case nine is almost certainly more live than average. We might have over a 6% chance of making quads which is substantial.
When cold decking the small blind, we can leverage off his bet to help knock out low draws perhaps even weak made lows that can’t take the heat of a raising war. The difference between paying off or dragging what may be the largest pot of the entire evening is immense and extends further than the mathematics behind a single pot would indicate. Momentum is a powerful thing in poker; one big hand can easily turn the tide in a particular session and perhaps jump-start a sustained period of run good.
And deception only benefits us against aware opponents. Many players are simply fixated on the strength of their own holdings, and may only care or notice whether their opponents are pat. It might seem that even the cocktail waitress knows you have trips when drawing two, but your rivals might not even be paying attention to how many cards you drew.
It’s also important to note that someone that plays strongly on the first betting round and draws two can also have pocket aces as it’s somewhat awkward to draw three, especially out-of-position to an opponent that might have two pair.
Suppose the cutoff raises, we three-bet from small blind with aces, the big blind folds, and your opponent just calls and ends up drawing one. We would like to keep the foot on the
gas in case our opponent has just a weak low draw, but drawing two might protect you from getting raised by a middling two pair as they might fear either trips or a high pair that improved.
And the times you are up against two pair, the price of only drawing two to a pair of aces is relatively minimal:
| Draw Two | Draw Three | |
| Quads | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Full House | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Trips | 7.8% | 11.4% |
| Two Pair | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| 25.9% | 28.7% |
Also, drawing to A♥A♠2♠ leaves open the fun possibility of collecting two low spades where we could consider reversing course and drawing to a low straight flush draw.
Ultimately the goal of drawing one to trips or two to aces is often to either earn or possibly save a bet. This is of upmost importance when playing a game like no-limit five card draw as there are only two betting streets and that final bet could be quite sizeable. In a limit game, this consideration is less dominant because our primary focus should be on winning the pot, thus we should remain flexible in our play and adjust to the situation we face.
Kevin Haney is a former actuary but left the corporate job to focus on his passions for poker and fitness. The certified personal trainer owned a gym in New Jersey, but has since moved to Las Vegas. He started playing the game back in 2003, and particularly enjoys taking new players interested in mixed games under his wing and quickly making them proficient in all variants. Learn more or just say hello with an email to haneyk612@gmail.com.