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Someone in the comment section of my YouTube channel (PokerCoaching) recently shared an interesting hand from the bubble of a $500 buy-in tournament that illustrates a few critical errors many poker players make on a regular basis.
There was 66 players remaining with 64 set to make the money. With a 40-big blind stack, an overly loose, aggressive player raised from second position to 2.2 big blinds. The action folded around to our Hero on the button with a 20-big blind stack who looked down at Q-Q and decided to call.
While slowplaying Q-Q is occasionally reasonable against an aggressive player who will frequently fold to an all-in, getting tricky on the bubble is not advisable. It is hugely beneficial to pick up even the raise, the blinds, and the antes at this point. On top of that, when you get called, Q-Q will usually be the favorite. While calling will result in the opponent bluffing off his stack some portion of the time, it also allows him to see the flop, which will sometimes be detrimental for Hero.
The action folded around to the big blind, an aggressive big stack, who three-bet to 9 big blinds out of his 60-big blind stack. The initial raiser quickly folded.
Hero again had to decide if he should slowplay or go all-in. Calling only makes sense if Hero thinks the opponent will fold for 11 big blinds more, which is highly unlikely to happen. He will have to call 11 more big blinds to win a pot that will contain 44 big blinds, meaning he needs to win 25% of the time (11/44). Nearly any two reasonable cards will have roughly 25% equity against even a strong range of exactly A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and A-K.
Of course, if he can somehow put Hero on exactly A-A, then he can justify folding some tiny portion of hands. That said, given it is the bubble, Hero does not mind winning the pot with no contest, making an all-in the clear best option.
Hero moved all-in and the big blind instantly called with Q-8 offsuit. What?!?
I hate this play by Q-8 offsuit. While I understand the idea of pushing around the bubble with a big stack, this does not seem like an opportune time to do so. While the initial raiser likely has a wider range than most due to his aggressive tendencies, raising from second position into the big stack in the big blind and multiple 20-big blind jamming stacks without at least a reasonable range is a recipe for disaster.
Also, the preflop caller (Hero) could be trapping with a premium hand. That said, if there is a strong reason to think both players have marginal holdings, bluffing with a junky blocker hand could be profitable, although it is probably better to use an ace or king.
Once jammed on by Hero, Q-8 offsuit should probably fold, even getting amazing pot odds. Against A-A, it only wins 14% of the time, and against A-A, K-K, Q-Q, and A-K, it wins 23% of the time. For the call to be barely profitable, Hero needs to be jamming a range of at least 10-10+, A-10 suited+, A-Q offsuit+, and K-Q suited. That does not seem likely to me, given it is the bubble.
There is a bit of merit in the idea of letting people know they cannot get out of line against you because you will snap them off, but the time to do that is typically not when there is a substantial amount of money on the line.
Two eights then arrived on the turn and river, sending Hero to rail. What a fun game!
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Jonathan Little is a WSOP bracelet winner, two-time WPT winner, and the 2024 PokerGO Cup champion with nearly $9 million million in live tournament earnings, best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site at PokerCoaching.com/cardplayer.
- Photo by PokerGO – Antonio Abrego