The Super Bowl Tournament

As this is being written, the NFL playoffs for the 2003 season are just hours away from beginning. Unfortunately, our publishing deadlines do not allow for an exact Super Bowl prediction, due to the time needed for production and delivery of Card Player. However, we do have an opportunity to provide some general Super Bowl analysis and perspective. And this provides you, the reader, with a great chance to second-guess your humble narrator – me.

As I have written on these pages before, it is one of my prime theories that Super Bowls are very rarely won by "weak" coaches. I think that was shown again last year when Jon Gruden of Tampa Bay clearly out-coached his former Oakland offensive coordinator, Bill Callahan, defeating his former Raider players in a 48-21 Buccaneer victory in San Diego. Oakland was a 4-point favorite in that game. But in coaching terms, Gruden of Tampa Bay was "the favorite" over the rookie head coach (and now fired) Callahan.

In fact, the superior coach in the game usually wins the Super Bowl. Fully 20 of the previous 37 Super Bowls have been won by eight acknowledged coaching greats (Vince Lombardi – 2, Tom Landry – 2, Don Shula – 2, Chuck Noll – 4, Bill Walsh – 3, Joe Gibbs – 3, Bill Parcells – 2, and Jimmy Johnson – 2). The highly respected Weeb Eubank, John Madden, Dick Vermeil, and Mike Shanahan (2) account for five other titles. That's 25 of the 37 championships won by excellent coaches, and I think the youthful Gruden will eventually be included in that group. So, I make it 26 of 37.

In contrast, the coaches in the preceding paragraph were on the losing side of a total of only 10 Super Bowls, so their combined win-loss record is 26-10. However, six Super Bowls paired the above coaches against each other. Take out those six games, and the record of the premium coaches versus lesser mentors is a sterling 20-4!

With the preceding numbers in mind, let's take a look at the coaches who made it to this year's tournament. From the AFC, we have Bill Belichick, Dick Vermeil, Brian Billick, Tony Dungy, Jeff Fisher, and Mike Shanahan. From the NFC, Andy Reid, Mike Martz, John Fox, Mike Sherman, Bill Parcells, and Mike Holmgren. It's interesting to note that half of the 12 in the field this year (those being Parcells – 2, Shanahan – 2, Belichick, Billick, Vermeil, and Holmgren) have already won the big one, totaling eight NFL championships. With such a history of repeat winners in Super Bowls, naturally, I wouldn't be overly surprised if one of those guys did it again.

Of the remaining six tournament coaches this year, Jeff Fisher and Mike Martz have been to the big one, only to lose it. Dungy, Reid, Sherman, and Fox are the only "virgin" Super Bowl coaches. Of these six looking for their first title, I think Fisher and Reid have shown they have what it takes to get the job done. I'm not so sure about Fox (still learning as a head coach), Sherman (same deal), Martz (not a great leader, and overcomplicates things), and Dungy (still learning how to get over the hump in the postseason).

Another simple and obvious analytical tool for Super Bowls is defense. This old adage is often true in the postseason: "Offense wins games; defense wins championships." A definitively superior defense is a big edge in the big game, as the Ravens over the Giants, the Patriots over the Rams, and the Bucs over the Raiders have shown the last three Super Bowls. From that perspective, I think the odds are against Kansas City, Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Seattle going the distance this season, unless some extremely favorable playoff matchups help those teams.

My last simple tool is quarterback. Very inexperienced QBs very rarely go deep, deep in the playoffs. Tom Brady, who has proven to be special, was an exception two years ago. Most other youngsters fall by the wayside. In my mind, that eliminates Anthony Wright and Baltimore, and Quincy Carter and Dallas. Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck and Carolina's Jake Delhomme have never even started a playoff game prior to this year, but they are five-year veterans, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. St. Louis would be eliminated by this reasoning with Marc Bulger, but the Rams could always turn to two-time MVP (and Super Bowl winner) Kurt Warner.

In these three simple yet time-tested guidelines, I think this year's Super Bowl tournament winner will be among New England, Philadelphia, Tennessee, or Denver, all of whom have the requisite coaching, defense, and QB experience for a long playoff run. Eliminated are Baltimore (QB), Indy (defense, coach), K.C. (defense), G.B. (defense, coach), Carolina (coach), Dallas (QB), Seattle (defense), and St. Louis (coach, albeit a close call, because Martz has been there before, but was out-coached!).

Once again, this was written before the start of the playoffs. Let's see on Feb. 2 whether I'm a fool (again).

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 47 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for it at your local newsstand. If you haven't seen it and would like to peruse a complimentary copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.