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When Can You Trust Your Intuition?

by Alan Schoonmaker |  Published: Jun 20, 2018

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The question is NOT: Can you trust your intuition? It’s when can you trust it? Many players trust it too often. Most people, including you and me, overestimate our abilities. For almost every skill more than two-thirds of the people believe we’re above average, a statistical impossibility. If we believe we have good intuition, we rely on it too often. Because luck has such huge short-term effects, this overestimation is particularly common and destructive in poker. Most of us think we play better than we really do. That’s why so many people keep playing in poker rooms despite the fact that at least 85 percent of all players lose. The losers rationalize that they are just unlucky. Because it’s primarily an unconscious process, overconfidence is particularly common for intuition. We don’t know exactly why we have a belief. We just believe it. Countless players believe they have great intuition because ...


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