About Bluffing, Facts, and Logical Assumptions – Some thoughts to ponder for poker success

Hi. Come on in. Pull up a rocking chair. Relax. I've had a taste all day for macaroni and cheese. So, I cooked up a big potful and tossed in a lot of mushrooms and chunks of salami. You can work off the cholesterol later.

ANOTHER POKER QUESTION I'VE BEEN ASKED TOO OFTEN OVER THE YEARS: With the poker world's current flood of new players, many of them are asking about bluffing. Whether it's hold'em or seven-card stud, my advice at the low and medium limits is simple and specific – don't! (Stop shaking your head while I explain.)

Bluffing at the lower limits is generally a losing play. If there is a big pot, you aren't going to bluff everyone out for one more bet, and if it's a small pot, why are you bluffing at it? I have some old poker books that state that you must advertise by doing some bluffing early, in order to get paid off on your big hands later. That assumes that you are going to have big hands later. You might not.

At the low and medium limits, I tell my students of the distinction between bluffing in a home game and bluffing in a public card room. What's the difference? It's simple. If you're playing every Friday night with the same bunch of people, you must do some bluffing. Otherwise, even the slowest of them eventually will figure out that you don't bluff, and will tend not to call your river bets unless they have big hands that can beat you.

Furthermore, bluffing isn't necessary at the lower limits in public poker. In fact, it is quite difficult to establish a reputation as a bluffer. That's because you aren't playing against the same players at every session. To become known as a bluffer, you, logically enough, have to attempt and get caught bluffing. That costs money, and before you can really set your image as a bluffer, two opponents leave to go eat, a third goes broke, and a fourth runs off to catch a plane. Their places are taken by players who have not seen you bluff, so you have to start the process all over. That is very expensive advertising.

Bluffing against lower-limit players runs into another problem. They tend to do a lot of calling on the end, even if you raise or check-raise. At the lower limits, whether you're playing hold'em or stud, you must, a majority of the time, show the best hand to win, because most hands do go to a showdown.

CHANGE OF SUBJECT (AND A DISCOURAGEMENT TO NEGATIVITY): Most winning poker players have a positive attitude about their game. Losers tend toward dwelling on Murphy's Law, which states that anything that can go wrong will. But West's Law in that area brings you a note of cheer: "Considering the infinite number of things that could go wrong at the poker table, and the small number of things that do go wrong, you're actually doing quite well." You feel better already, don't you? You're welcome.

CHANGE OF SUBJECT: Here's another weapon for your poker arsenal that other players don't have – and they probably won't believe in it when they read it. You, however, believe in it. "Realize the difference between facts and logical assumptions."

There are not many "facts" about your opponents' hands available to you during a poker game. A player showing a 6 just calls on third street in a medium- or low-limit seven-card stud game. A king raises and an ace reraises. The 6 then puts in another raise. It's not a "fact" that he has three sixes, but it is a "logical assumption."

More than a few years ago, I made my living as a television actor in Hollywood. That's where I learned to separate facts from logical assumptions. One of my acting coaches taught me the concept. Here's an example: If a woman in a scene is observed kneeling in a church with her head bowed, we don't know for a fact that she is praying, but it is a logical assumption.

It would do you well to think of the difference between facts and logical assumptions while playing poker. Give more weight to a fact when making a decision, but also realize that several logical assumptions put together could well have the weight of one fact.

From observing the play of a particular opponent, you know (fact) that he will draw to every flush that he sees. He doesn't often draw to straights (fact), especially small straights. His board on fourth street in an unraised pot is showing the 6 5 . My logical assumption is that you enjoyed my macaroni and cheese concoction. I confirm it as fact by the fact that you ate every bit and scraped the pot. Now, I need a nap and time to digest. Kill the light on your way out.

Roy West, best-selling poker author, continues giving his successful poker lessons in Las Vegas for both tourists and locals. Ladies are welcome. Roy's toll-free 800 number is 1-800-548-6177 EXT. 03.