$200,000 Challenge Match Against Joe Cassidy – A limit hold'em challenge match against a tough, young player

In my third challenge match at Wynn Las Vegas, once again my opponent chose limit hold'em. I saw two potential reasons for this: The word on the street is that I suck at limit hold'em, and there are lots of tough, young limit hold'em specialists who hone their skills online.

The latter is definitely the case with Joe Cassidy. He is one of the best young players in the game today, and limit hold'em is his bread-and-butter game. Going into the match, I had no idea what to expect, other than that it would be no cakewalk, to say the least.

In the early going, we threw cautious jabs at each other without any significant fluctuations. Then he hit a run of cards and had me down more than $150,000. I then hit a rush of my own and stormed back to dead even. There was a key hand that helped me get even that I'd like to share with you:

We were playing $2,000-$4,000 limit and Joe raised from the button to $4,000. With Q-9 offsuit in the big blind, I defended my blind. That is an automatic play when heads up; folding is not an option. In fact, you could make a case for reraising, but definitely not folding. If you are folding hands like that when heads up, you simply can't win.

The flop then missed me completely: 10 6 2. I checked to Joe and he made a virtually automatic bet, since he'd raised before the flop and had position. Getting 5-1 pot odds, I decided to take a card off and see if the turn brought any help.

It did, as it was the J, giving me an open-end straight draw. I once again checked it to Joe and he fired another bullet. Up to this point, I'd check-raised Joe on the turn very seldom, and even less often as a bluff.

So, I thought this might be a good opportunity to represent strength, and decided to make the semibluff check-raise, hoping first that Joe might fold, second that if he called, I'd hit my hand, and third that he might have a draw himself and fold to a bet on the river if he missed.

Joe called my raise, at which point I thought it was very likely that he had a draw. My read of Joe told me that he wasn't contemplating whether or not he had the best hand on the turn, but more so that he was hoping to catch a card.

The river missed me completely when the 5 fell. So, since plans A and B didn't work, I was left with plan C: betting in hope that Joe was on a draw. I fired one last semi desperate shell at the pot and Joe quickly called. "You got it," I told him. "I've got nothing." But Joe didn't move. I thought it was strange that he didn't take my word for it and wanted to see my hand. Joe is a gentleman and doesn't resort to antics like that. It then dawned on me that Joe might have called me with a very weak hand.

Finally, I turned over my queen high and Joe said, "It's good." Thoughts of Ellix Powers popped into my head: "You called me with jack high?" Of course, Joe couldn't have jack high, since there was a jack on the board. So, what did he call me with? Well, before he mucked his hand, he looked over at my hand and said, "Man, I knew you were bluffing. I was sure you had a draw, too." Then, he turned over the Q 4. He'd flopped a flush draw and then decided to call me with queen high.

Now, before you jump in line to play either Joe or me, let's look at how much there was to learn from this hand. Actually, the learning would come from Joe's thought process on the hand. This is what must have gone through Joe's mind: "OK, he check-raised me on the turn and there are all kinds of straight and flush draws out there. If he flopped a pair, he probably would have check-raised me right there. I guess he could have hit the jack, but with what kind of a hand with a jack in it would he take a card off in this spot?" Then, on the river, his thought process may have continued like this: "I'm getting 8-1 that he missed his draw and can't beat queen high. I can beat 9-8, 9-7, 8-7, and both a smaller diamond or spade draw. Plus, I just think he's bluffing." While Joe's call seems silly, he was absolutely right in his thought process and just unfortunate that I had him pipped with my 9 kicker! Of course, in hindsight, you might be asking why Joe wouldn't raise me on the river if he was so sure that I was on a draw.

Well, he couldn't be totally certain, and he probably figured that it wasn't worth risking another bet to get me to lay down king high or even a better queen high. He must have correctly assumed that it may have been too likely that I would have called him with a pair, and ace high was extremely unlikely since I probably would have checked that hand down on the river, hoping it could win in a showdown.

All in all, Joe's analysis was excellent. Well, this wasn't Joe's analysis per se, but it was my take on what likely went through his mind, and I'm pretty sure he'd concur. In the end, Joe got the best of me and ended up beating me in about seven and a half hours. So far, I've played three matches, with a record of 1-2, all in limit hold'em. That's the bad news. The good news is, I'm still up $100,000, since the match I won was worth $500,000.

As for Joe, there will be no rematch. I have no interest in beating my head against a wall, and I found no significant chinks in his armor. He plays the game about as well as you can play it.

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