Featured gambling columnist Michael Kaplan notes Polymarket’s rise as a prediction market and the insider trading controversy surrounding it.
I’ll admit, I am a Polymarket voyeur.
In other words, I’m not betting on it, but I do like checking out the site to see what other people are thinking – or really, where they are putting their money.
The topics I’m interested in range from the important (Will the S&P 500 hit an all-time high by Dec. 31?) to the trivial (Will Epstein blackmail evidence be released in 2025?) to everything in between (like a bit of extra intel regarding which bets to make this weekend.)
One thing I did not think to look for on Polymarket was whether or not people are being accused of using insider trading to make money from taking positions on the site.
What Does The Google Guy Know?
It was reported in Card Player that a guy snagged $1 million in a single day betting on Google.
He bet on the most-searched results for 2025 and risked as much as $58,000 on just one of his positions.
It’s been alleged on Twitter/X that the recipient of the seven-figure payout is actually a “Google insider.” The implication is that he used early released Google search result data to win 23 out of 24 positions.
For Insiders Only?
Perhaps Polymarket and its competitors represent the modern-day Wild West of trading (or gambling, depending on how you see things) – more or less how online poker was characterized in the early 2000s.
People got shot dead in the Wild West like it was nothing. Figuratively speaking, is that happening to ordinary gunslingers who take positions in the prediction markets?
It shouldn’t be. Polymarket is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (it has been as of November). Despite legal challenges from a number of states, prediction markets continue to grow.
That said, there are insider trading allegations against the person who scooped a million and might have traded on Polymarket with crypto. Let’s see what action, if any, gets taken.
A Design Feature?
An engineer by the name of Gergely Orosz addressed the matter with bluntness on Twitter/X. He described the vulnerability to insiders as something he predicted.
Somebody else characterized the imbalance as a feature, and not a bug.
“I thought it’s an open secret that betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are the perfect place to do insider trading?” Orosz posted. “Those with insider information will naturally use it to cash [in] at the expense of everyone else. No risk.”
Exploiting The Exploiters?
Now that the news is out, I am wondering how many people are running the numbers and aiming to exploit the insiders.
Like, when you see money piling into one prediction market and shifting the odds, maybe go to another where the numbers remain unchanged because a supposed insider has not plowed in?
Just remember to be quick on the trigger!
Then again, you can always find something else to do with your hard-earned cash. That seems to be what Orosz would encourage.
“I cannot recommend betting on future events like this,” he posted. “Unless you’re an insider with information, you’ll be the exit liquidity for insiders.”
In other words, there are times when being out of action is the best place to be. But then again…
Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He is the author of six books including Advantage Players, and has worked for publications that include Wired, GQ, and the New York Post. He has written extensively on technology, gambling, and business — with a particular interest in spots where all three intersect. His article on Kelly “Baccarat Machine” Sun and Phil Ivey is currently in development as a feature film.
