The owner of the New York Stock Exchange made a huge investment in a prediction market platform.
On Tuesday, Intercontinental Exchange announced it took a $2 billion stake in Polymarket. The deal values the cryptocurrency-based prediction market at $90 billion.
The news comes as Polymarket’s main competitor, Kalshi, simultaneously experienced major growth and pushback from state gaming regulators. After already dealing with lawsuits in New Jersey, Nevada and Maryland, the company most recently began a legal battle with Ohio regulators.
Polymarket also offers sports markets in other countries, along with betting on political elections and other events. Officials with the company view the deal as a step toward legitimacy in the financial and investing world.
“Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” CEO Shayne Coplan said in the announcement. “By combining ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer savvy, we will be able to deliver world-class products for the modern investor.”
Deal Centered Around Data Distribution & Tokenization
The deal speaks volumes to what large institutional corporations think about the prediction market industry. Additionally, it might show how they think Kalshi’s legal struggles will end.
As part of the deal, ICE becomes the official distributor of Polymarket’s data. According to a New York Post report, the companies will also work together on “tokenization” projects that combine traditional markets and blockchain-based assets.
Coplan founded Polymarket in 2020, but regulators only approved the company to operate in the U.S. last month. Its users wagered more than $2 billion on the U.S. presidential election in 2024, and accurately predicted the result.
Some political pundits believe prediction markets have become a key addition to the traditional polling model. Voters might be dishonest to pollsters, but nobody is wagering money hoping the other side wins.
Prior to its September approval, allowing for U.S. operations, the company faced issues with the U.S. federal government. The Biden administration opened an investigation into it in 2024 and even raided Coplan’s New York home. Coplan was not arrested or charged in the case.
The possibility of offering sports prediction markets in the U.S. may also have been reason for the deal with ICE. Kalshi began offering sports markets earlier this year and made significant inroad attracting bettors to its event contracts.
However, sports prediction markets’ legality is still up in the air. Several states believe Kalshi is skirting its online sports betting laws, with Maryland regulators winning a lawsuit with the company.
ICE’s deal signals that they don’t believe sports prediction markets will be banned. But federal lawmakers recently drafted a letter to the CFTC expressing concerns about Kalshi’s sports offerings.
