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Stereotypes And Base Rates

by Alan Schoonmaker |  Published: Apr 25, 2018


A complete stranger just shoved all in. The bet was three times the medium-sized pot. It’s your first hand at the final table of a small tournament. There are ten players left, and only six will cash. Your stack is above-average, and your opponent has you covered. If you call and lose, you’re busted. If you win, you’ll become the chip leader. You’ve got the number two flush, and there isn’t a pair on the board. There’s only one critical question: What’s the probability that your opponent doesn’t have the nut flush? Since you’ve never seen this opponent play, your decision will certainly be influenced by your beliefs about certain kinds of people. For example, you believe – correctly – that a tattooed young man with green hair is much more likely to shove than a conservatively-dressed, 75-year-old woman. But how much weight should you give to that difference? Daniel ...

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