Playing poker well demands accurately quantifying your risks versus your rewards. All decisions have effective odds, the estimated price you pay to proceed to a given point against the estimated amount you should win. You can’t possibly calculate an exact number for many decisions because the variables are immeasurable. But by doing some “rough justice” you can make reasonably accurate estimates of most situations. Just understanding this conceptually and trying hard to mathematically analyze all your poker decisions will develop your game.
I was playing $40-$80 limit hold’em at the Bellagio. A loose-tourist raised upfront, folding the two players in between us. I looked down to the A
K
and three-bet. The small blind (SB) called the three-bets cold and Mr. Loose-Tourist tossed in the additional bet. We took the flop three-handed for $120, $400 in the pot.
I swished the flop, nothing but net, the K
K 2, they both checked and I fired. The SB called and Mr. Tourist check-raised. I thought about slow playing, but I believed both players would pay off liberally and if I three-bet I might get raised again on the turn should the other king be out and get in three big bets then. I launched another raise, the SB called the extra two bets and Mr. Loose-Tourist showed his hand to his neighbor, stated “you got me, I’m not going to chase you,” and tossed his hand away.
The turn came the 5. I noticed Mr. Loose-Tourist glare at his neighbor and start shaking his head. I fired again and got paid on both the turn and the river from the SB. I turned over my hand, he showed the K
10 and the dealer pushed me the $1,040 pot.
“I folded two fives,” Mr. Loose-Tourist informed me. I’d suspected as much from his reaction when the 5 came. His neighbor asserted “I would have called that,” though decisions are much easier in retrospect when your card has come. I reflected on his decision to fold, wondering if I would do better expectation-wise if Mr. Tourist would have called or folded? At the point Mr. Tourist mucked there were 18 small bets in the pot, giving him 18-to-1 current on his call, with no players to act behind him so the pot couldn’t be raised. And the pot would only get bigger should he catch a five. So did Mr. Loose-Tourist make the right decision by folding?
Out of 47 unseen cards, two made him fives-full. So he was 45-to-2 to make a full house on the turn, or 22.5-to-1. Assuming he was beat, Mr. Loose-Tourist would have to catch a five to win. And he would have to average winning $900 (22.5 times $40), counting money already in the pot, plus any additional bets he could acquire after hitting his hand, while taking into account fives-full might not win the pot, to make that $40 call expected value (EV) neutral. Do you understand why?
Was that $900 average in the cards? If he caught a five on the turn, anyone holding a king would be 39-to-7 to draw out on him. Assuming nobody held K-5 or K-2 and a king was out, around 18 percent of the time Mr. Loose-Tourist hit a five on the turn he would lose the pot on the river. So Mr. Loose-Tourist would need to extend his odds to include the risk of that happening. Doing some “rough justice” on the numbers, adding 20 percent to the $900 yields $1,080. Could Mr. Loose-Tourist average generating $1,080 of current monies plus additional bets every time he turned a five?
There was $720 in the pot at the point Mr. Loose-Tourist folded. Assuming he could check-raise the turn and bet the river, he would get a minimum of an additional $240 out of me, most likely more as I would probably put him on the other king and three-bet the turn. Also, there was Mr. SB to consider. It’s likely Mr. Tourist would be able to acquire some equity from him if a five came, significant equity if he held a king.
Considering all the potential scenarios, I think Mr. Loose-Tourist made a small error in folding. In too many settings he would have been able to top the $1,080 mark, considerably so in those situations in which both I and Mr. SB held a king. And only in the very rare circumstance that someone held K-2 or K-5 is he in a situation where his money is going in very bad. As a blended average, Mr. Tourist would receive positive EV calling my third bet on the flop.
But it’s great for me that he folded the fives. Not only because in this particular instance a five came and he was in the muck, but because he folded a hand when he was getting the best of it to call. And when your opponent folds a hand with which he was EV correct in calling, he increases your equity in the pot.
The hand speaks to the concept of drawing when the pot is laying you the correct odds to draw. Many novice players fold when they think they are beat without considering their odds of drawing to a winning hand versus the size of the pot they may win. Correctly assessing those odds comes only from a lot of experience reading hands and calculating odds. But even if you are struggling in your calculations, just understanding the concept will give you a better feel for poker situations as well as accelerate the growth of your game. ♠
Roy Cooke played poker professionally for 16 years prior to becoming a successful Las Vegas Real Estate Broker/Salesman in 1989. Should you wish to any information about Real Estate matters-including purchase, sale or mortgage his office number is 702-396-6575 or Roy’s e-mail is RealtyAce@aol.com. His website is www.roycooke.com. You can also find him on Facebook or Twitter @RealRoyCooke