Big Laydown, but the Correct Move?

I recently got an e-mail from Matt, one of my faithful readers, regarding a hand he played. I thought it was worth discussing, so here it is.

Matt was playing in the main game at his local casino. The game was no-limit hold'em with blinds of$5-$10. Matt's stack at the start of the hand was about $2,200, and he was in middle position with 2-2. One other player had already limped in, so he decided to try to take a cheap flop in order to hit his set. Both blinds saw the flop and there was four-way action. The flop came A-2-3 with two spades. Matt had mixed emotions, as he had flopped his set but there were many possible draws out against him, as well as a possible straight. It was checked to him and he decided to lead out for $90, overbetting the pot in an effort to try to protect his hand and make it expensive to draw against him. An old pro, sitting in the small blind, quickly raised an additional $150. The big blind took his time, with an obvious flush draw, and finally called! The original limper folded and it was now up to Matt. He was trying to decide if he should raise again or wait until the turn before putting in any additional money. Since he was positive that at least one player was on a flush draw, he finally decided to make him pay for the privilege of going for it, and raised an additional $700. The old pro stared at Matt and said, "You raised? I'm all-in." He said this with far more confidence in his voice than Matt wanted to hear. The guy with the flush draw put in his last $800 and it was now back to Matt. The old pro had Matt covered. With his original call of $10, his first bet of $90, his call of the old pro's raise of $150 more, and his additional raise of $700, his investment was now $950, and he had an additional $1,250 remaining in his stack. The old pro had $2,200 sitting in the center of the green felt, and the player with the flush draw had invested $1,050 and was all in. The pot now contained $4,210, counting the original limper who folded.

Matt now had a dilemma. He was positive that the old pro had one of two hands, 3-3 for a set or 5-4 for a made straight. If he had 3-3, Matt was dead to one out. If he had the straight, Matt had basically 10 outs: the three remaining aces, the last deuce, the three remaining threes, and whatever card that came on the turn that didn't pair the board, giving him three additional outs. The flush draw did not matter, since Matt had to assume he needed to make a full house in order to win. So, Matt thought things over for at least two minutes. He thought there was at least some chance that he was up against pocket threes, therefore making him dead to one out. He was convinced the old pro had the straight if he didn't have the set. Since everybody was all in anyway, he turned his set of deuces faceup and folded. The old pro turned up 5-4 for the straight, the flush never got there, and the turn card was the case deuce that would have given Matt quads.

Matt's question was this: "I know it seems like a mistake only because my card came, but what would you have done in this situation?"

Here is my answer: It would depend on my read of the old pro's hand. Since you made the original bet of $90, called his raise of $150 more, then put in an additional raise of $700, with the flush draw calling all of these bets, you priced yourself into this pot. If you thought that pocket threes was the only hand he could have, you must fold. If you thought he had what he did have – namely, a straight – you were correct to call and try to make your full house or quads. It seems to me that the straight was the more likely of the two hands, or the old pro would not have been so quick and confident to move all in. The extra money put in the pot by the flush draw made the pot worth drawing to.

We shouldn't go by results here, but by the best play. In the long run, you will make more money in this situation by calling than by folding, even though you can expect to lose about two-thirds of the time.

Assuming that we hold off all the other draws or improve our own hands, we can expect to meet one day in the winner's circle.

Tom McEvoy is a representative of PokerStars.com and the voice of Pro Play. You can learn more about Pro Play by going to www.myPokerBiz.com.