The heads of the American Gaming Association (AGA) and the Nevada Gaming Control Board (NGCB) criticized the growing prediction market industry this week during an appearance in Las Vegas at Park MGM as part of a meeting of the Economic Club.
AGA CEO Bill Miller had some harsh words for Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig, who has been adamant that the commission has sole regulatory control over prediction markets. The commission recently filed lawsuits against three states seeking to enforce sports betting laws against prediction market firms.
Miller pointed to major differences between the derivatives markets regulated by the CFTC and prediction market firms’ entry into the sports arena over the last year.
“The head of the CFTC, quite frankly, is a joke,” Miller said. “He believes somehow that what he’s doing is Uber, and the rest of the country is the taxicab industry. That’s not the case. He’s not facilitating something that’s a public good. A federal regulator charged with regulating derivatives around agricultural contracts should not be engaged in it.”
Legal Battles Continue
As legal battles between state regulators and prediction market platforms play out, Miller insists sports event contracts are nothing more than sports betting. The AGA and state gaming regulators contend the companies are simply circumventing sports betting regulations.
“These guys thought they were going to blitzkrieg their way through the world,” Miller said. “But we’ve started to see real movement in the last month or two. We are a year and change into this fight. We’re making their life very difficult (in court). My view is there are multiple ends to this, but almost all of the ends end with us winning.”
On Wednesday, the AGA pointed to a study from research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming that 69% of sports prediction market betting volume comes from states without legal online sports wagering. California and Texas, where sports betting is illegal, make up 43% of that total.
Miller said this shows “a blatant dismissal of voters’ decisions and state laws that chose not to legalize online sports betting.”
New data from @EilersKrejcik shows the majority of sports prediction market activity is taking place in states where online sports betting remains illegal.
That’s a blatant dismissal of voters’ decisions and state laws that chose not to legalize online sports betting.
Read… pic.twitter.com/9yhD0yN8dF
— American Gaming Association (@AmericanGaming) May 6, 2026
‘Sports Bets Framed In A Different Context’
NGCB Chair Mike Dreitzer also appeared at the Las Vegas meeting and said that since prediction markets began offering sports event contracts, the gaming industry has seen a slide in revenue from sports wagering.
He pointed to Tennessee, which doesn’t have casinos, as an example of where companies like Kalshi and Polymarket have taken market share from sports betting operators, according to CDC Gaming.
“This year, we’ve started to see softness nationally in the sports betting segment,” Dreitzer said. “We don’t have definitive data on prediction markets, but these guys are offering sports bets framed in a different context.”
The results in court have been mixed so far. Some states, including Massachusetts and Nevada, have won preliminary injunctions halting prediction market companies from operating while the cases move forward.
Some federal rulings, however, have gone in favor of prediction markets. Recently, though, an Ohio federal judge ruled against Kalshi.
Dreitzer believes the issue will ultimately be decided by the US Supreme Court. He said he feels optimistic about the gaming industry’s prospects of coming out on top.
“From our perspective, every day that goes by is a day where people violate the laws of states,” Dreitzer said. “The law is the law. Any time you risk your money for the uncertain outcome of sporting events, it’s gambling. We’re going to win this. I don’t know when, but it will be a good day.”
Federal lawmakers have also targeted the prediction market industry.
