The Due Theory

Teams don't win because they are 'due'

by Chuck Sippl |  Published: May 31, 2005

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It probably comes as no surprise to many of you that lots of handicappers discuss certain games or that day's slate over the phone. Also, handicappers often engage in conversations with other people, such as friends, ticket writers at sportsbooks, customers at sportsbooks, and casual sports fans. Inevitably, the conversation will navigate toward a single topic: Who do you like today?
Having been an avid student of the behavioral sciences in college, I have long ago become convinced of two things in more than nearly three decades as a professional handicapper:

1. If someone has a different opinion on a game than yours, you have virtually no chance of convincing him of your point of view. So, don't even try. Just discuss a few of your reasons and leave it at that. There's no sense in arguing.

2. If someone says he likes one side of a game because that team is "due" to win, I immediately start to consider the other side.

In my opinion, there is no less well-founded reason to bet on a team than it is "due" to win a game. In the first place, the only way a team can become due to win is if it has lost one or more games going into that upcoming contest. Usually, it has lost several games or is on a serious losing streak. This situation is probably more prevalent in baseball than in other sports, because of baseball's nearly daily action. But it has long been my belief that teams don't lose games by accident or coincidence. Perhaps a freak play might result in an occasional narrow loss, but bad baseball luck itself never explains an extended losing streak.

Baseball teams have losing streaks because they don't hit well, don't field well, have poor starting pitching, have overworked or inadequate middle relief, and/or ineffective closers. They don't lose nine in a row, or 11 out of 12, merely because of bad luck. That's a lot of bad bounces and ill fortune. Sports bettors who backed such a team when it had lost six straight because it was "due" had a chance to rack up several more losing wagers if they bet on that stress-ridden team because of "The Due Theory."

Slumping teams will win when they get ready to win. They'll win when they get fine pitching, clutch hitting, or excellent fielding, or when they meet a similarly struggling team, and usually not much before, and certainly not just because they're "due."

In fact, there's much more money to be made going against struggling teams than there is going with them. If a team has major flaws due to youth, old age, injuries, terrible pitching, or terrible hitting, it's best to look for ways to go against it - over and over again - until it snaps out of its malaise. If the baseball money line becomes too high, try the runs line, laying 1.5 runs.

If the team is slumping because it can't hit, maybe the "under" will work. If its pitching is terrible, maybe the "over" is the play.

Early this baseball season, I recall several times when other handicappers/sports bettors told me they liked a team that day because "it is due to get back on track at home," or "due to start scoring some runs," or "due to turn things around in the season series," or "due to have a letdown after that emotional series with the Yankees." All, of course, were losers, the last two having to do with Tampa Bay at Boston, where the Devil Rays were swept three straight by a combined score of 19-3. I guess the Rays weren't "due" quite yet.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying you should never bet on a team or a pitcher after a loss or two. In fact, I believe (and I did some research years ago to prove it to myself) that good teams tend to bounce back after a loss. That's what makes them good. They generally avoid prolonged losing spells except when key injuries are involved.

It's the same thing with pitchers. Most good pitchers tend to bounce back after a bad outing. In the first place, they're usually more determined. And in the second place, they're probably a little better rested if they threw fewer pitches and got sent to the showers early. It's when a previously effective pitcher loses three or four starts in a row, or is giving up an inordinate number of walks, that I become concerned about a possible injury, loss of confidence, or loss of proper form.

Every time someone tells me he likes a laboring team because it's "due," I always remind him that the Cubs are due to win the World Series, too; or, that a zebra is due to win the Kentucky Derby. (Yes, I know, zebras aren't eligible - but it makes the point.) Teams win when they're ready and able to win, or when they play someone even worse. It's usually a low-percentage play to back them when they're mired in a slump. That's something to remember over the course of the long baseball season.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands this June. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798 Gold (4653) and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.

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