In the U.S., sports bettors typically wager most of their bets in the fall, winter, and spring. However, this year, the FIFA World Cup is expected to generate significant betting in the summer months.
This year, the three North American countries are hosting the tournament. According to an ESPN report, sports bettors will wager $2.9 billion on the event.
That number would top the Super Bowl and March Madness, which are typically the two biggest events in U.S. sports betting.
A Big Boost To Summer
There are clear seasonal betting trends in the U.S. Betting intensifies with the start of pro and college football in the fall and peaks with the Super Bowl in February. Then, March Madness gives a boost to betting handles in the spring. Wagering on the MLB, NBA, and NHL is mixed in during those months.
But since the MLB is the only major sport attracting betting interest during the summer, betting declines after the NBA and NHL playoffs.
Many bettors are now expected to turn to the World Cup this summer. The vetting numbers could rise if the U.S. can advance out of group play for a deeper run in the tournament. By comparison, the Super Bowl brought in a betting total of $1.76 billion, according to the American Gaming Association, and March Madness produced $3.3 billion.
It’s important to note that the $2.9 billion prediction is for legal U.S. sportsbooks; that number will be much larger with unregulated offshore books included. Betting on the tournament is expected to double the total from 2022, when the World Cup was held in Qatar.
“The Super Bowl is the pinnacle, but the World Cup is going to be a couple dozen Super Bowls back-to-back-to-back-to-back over the span of six weeks,” Sportradar Vice President of Americas Brian Josephs told ESPN. The data company serves as an integrity monitor for various leagues and associations.
More Games, More Betting
This year’s tournament runs June 11 through July 19 and features an expanded field of 48 teams for the first time, up from 32. The sheer number of games means plenty of opportunities for handicappers seeking some soccer action.
That could be a boost for betting operators in the U.S. It also sets up for a huge year-over-year revenue decline in the summer months of 2027.
Team USA kicks off group play on June 12 against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. The squad plays in Group D, which also includes Australia and Turkey. If the U.S. can find a deep run, gaming research firm Eilers and Krejcik predicts that betting could reach as high as $4.4 billion.
By contrast, soccer betting brought in just $1.7 billion last June and July, according to H2 Gambling Capital. The consulting firm expects $60 billion wagered worldwide on this year’s World Cup. That is a 71% increase from 2022, boosted by the field expansion and additional gambling options now available in countries like Brazil and the U.S.
Prediction Markets Playing A Bigger Role Also
Beyond traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets are also expected to benefit from some summer soccer. The Financial Times reported that Polymarket had already seen trading volume on the eventual winner reach $1.5 billion.
FIFA embraced the industry in April by naming ADI Predictstreet as the official prediction market platform for the World Cup.
Fanatics Markets reached a deal to be the official US prediction market platform of the World Cup. The company is partnering with PredictStreet on a co-branded digital hub to present news, stats, and other in-app content.
“You have a global partner of FIFA who, in a very quickly evolving and dynamic space that is prediction markets, was in a position where they did need a U.S. partner to deliver the best experience for sports fans in the U.S.,” Fanatics sports betting CEO Matt King told Sports Business Journal.
“We … can move very quickly and always want to be in a position where we’re delivering great experiences for sports fans. And we’re big believers in working with officially licensed partners. So for us, it was a natural fit.”
World Cup Betting Odds
As for those looking ahead to the on-pitch action, Spain is the favorite to win the Cup at odds of around +420. Then, sportsbooks are listing France at +470 and England at +700.
The winner of the 2022 Cup, Argentina, checks in at +1000. Brazil has won more championships than any other country with five and is also among the betting favorites at +850. Portugal is also a top consideration at +1000.
As for the host countries, Mexico and the U.S. are both considerable longshots at odds of +5500. Canada has even slimmer odds to hoist the trophy according to bookmakers at +20000.
Poker has its own story line in this year’s tournament. A former poker pro will be coaching the Bosnian World Cup soccer squad.
In February, English soccer star Dele Alli accumulated six-figure losses at late-night poker sessions at a London casino.
