Earlier this month, allegations flew about the method one person used to make $1 million on Polymarket. It’s been claimed that the big winner used insider knowledge to successfully trade on the position of ‘the most-searched results of 2025.’
When the news broke, I figured that sharp bettors everywhere would be quick to exploit ways to game prediction markets. I assumed they’d do it by following the big-money momentum, in the manner of sports bettors like Spanky and sharp traders on Wall Street.
As it turns out, not all sharps are eager to bite on these bets. And now, exclusive to Card Player, top sports bettor Gadoon “Spanky” Kyrollos is weighing in.
Spanky Stays Away
Spanky has dual degrees in computer science and finance and worked on Wall Street before switching to sports betting. The New Jersey native developed advanced software to find advantageous plays quickly, and is known for high-volume wagers totaling millions.
Spanky With Legendary Sports Bettor Billy Walters
The 47-year-old hosts an annual convention in Las Vegas every year for bookmakers and bettors to network. He is also the chairman of American Bettors Voice, and even founded the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame.
Spanky has dipped his toe into betting sports on the burgeoning prediction markets and agreed with my assessment. That being said, he won’t be among the ones taking positions in what appears to be lock-action on Kalshi and Manifold Markets to exploit information picked up elsewhere.
His lack of interest says a lot. Spanky has famously made loads of dough by following the money in sports betting.
Wagering on events where the outcome is already determined, however, is something else altogether.
Risky Business
“If someone already knows the answer,” Spanky said during a late-night phone call, “I would never want to be a part of that. There’s always going to be somebody who knows more than me when it comes from the inside.”
“My momentum is online movements for events where the outcome is unknown,” he added. “I like to see things get settled on the field.”
Spanky has little doubt that smart gamblers are working on ways to follow large positions and exploit them where others have yet to venture. But he finds the known-outcome wagers to be perilous, even with an edge.
“You can still get caught with your pants down,” he warned. “It’s a buyer beware type of thing.”
But would he ever be a buyer?
“If I were to participate in something like this, I would ask myself if there is a possibility of someone, somewhere in the world, even if it’s only one person, knowing the result of the market. If the answer is yes, I’m staying far away… unless that person is me.”
Betting On Hulk Hogan And The Oscars? Uh, No Thanks
Spanky pointed out that this kind of proposition wagering is nothing new, and predates prediction markets. Offshore online betting sites allow some of these ‘prop’ bets, but the wagers stay small for the very reason that someone, somewhere knows the result.
Take professional wrestling, for example. Those flying dropkicks may convince some of the audience, but it would be a significant risk to take big bets on a pre-determined sport.
Kyrollos Speaks At Sports Betting Hall Of Fame
“I remember there being a market for it at one time, years and years ago,” Spanky said, recalling people putting money on guys like Hulk Hogan, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, and ‘Stone Cold’ Steve Austin. “Obviously the matches were all scripted and [the outcomes] got leaked.”
Sports books in Las Vegas, arguably the gold standard for betting, won’t go near this sort of thing. For example, the books won’t even take action on the Academy Awards.
“They won’t even take bets on the color of Gatorade that gets dumped on the winning coach at the Super Bowl,” said Spanky. “The guy delivering the Gatorade knows the color.”
Keeping A Lid On The Pandora’s Box Of Betting
Spanky’s warnings should provoke some hesitation about betting on known outcomes, regardless of what you think you can intuit by following the money.
“If the results are known by even one person, then the Pandora’s Box of insider trading is impossible to keep shut,” Spanky said. “I’d rather use the math and bet on things that have yet to be played out. With sports betting, anyone can win. Everyone has a chance.”
While winning is easier for pro bettors like Spanky, sports at least offers everyone a more level playing field.
“Even a broken clock is right twice a day,” he said. “But with this other stuff, it’s the Two-I Theory – either you’re an insider or you’re an idiot.”
Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He is the author of six books including Advantage Players, and has worked for publications that include Wired, GQ and the New York Post. He has written extensively on technology, gambling, and business — with a particular interest in spots where all three intersect. His article on Kelly “Baccarat Machine” Sun and Phil Ivey is currently in development as a feature film.
- Photos by Shutterstock, Spanky Kyrollos
