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Derivatives

by Ed Miller |  Published: May 08, 2019

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Last time we discussed what makes two betting markets related, and we went through an example of how to price one market versus the other. The same logic from the last section can be used to price any point spread versus any other spread (or a money line, which is the same as a point spread bet with a line of zero). Pricing -1 versus the money line is simple, because you only care about how often the game will tie or land on 1. But you could use the same process to derive the price relationship between the money line and a line of -2.5 or -7.5 or even -28. If you wanted to do -28, for example, you’d try to estimate five percentages. The chance the dog wins the game, the chance the game ends in a tie, the chance the favorite wins by less than 28, the ...


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