Second of Three

Second of Three

Here's a tip that might make you some money sometime.

I was playing in the weekly Friday hold'em tournament at the Tropicana in Atlantic City ($115 buy-in, no rebuys). At the $100-$200 betting level, I had about $600 in chips (we started with $500). Otherwise put, nothing good or bad had happened yet.

On my $100 big blind, I picked up a wretched J 2. The good news was that nobody raised before the flop. There was one early-position caller and the small blind called. Thus, in three-way action, I stoically awaited the flop – which came with the unimpressive 8 4 3. We all had about the same amount of chips.

The small blind checked. What should I do with this pathetic hand? This is not a joke.

Assuming that I have a reasonably tight image, this is a clear-cut betting situation, unless one of my opponents is a diehard calling station.

I bet the $100 and everyone folded, as I had hoped they would. Things now looked better for my survival as I posted my small blind from my $800 in chips.

Why was this a clear-cut betting situation? The chances of a random hand (no pocket pair) hitting a pair on the flop are roughly one out of three. But, since the small blind did not bet (he might well bet a pair), he will probably have a calling hand less than one time in four (occasionally, he might be trapping).

The crawler to my left most likely has one or two high cards (he might have raised before the flop with a pocket pair); hence, he will have a calling hand perhaps even less than one time in four. I would expect my $100 bet to be called less than half of the time, and since I was sending $100 to pick up $300, that certainly was a good bet.

If somebody called me, I would probably give up on the hand, although against certain opponents, I might try again by betting the $200 on the turn.

You probably noticed that I had both a three-flush and a three-straight on the flop. Did that extra 5 percent of winning potential (about 3.3 percent for the three-flush and 1.6 percent for the three-straight) affect my decision to bet? Very little. This was mostly a pure bluff situation.

Note that similar "second of three" situations often occur in live-action games. It is usually correct for the big blind to lead at a crawler after the small blind has checked.