At the CoinPoker Mid-Stakes Cash Game World Championship, “SIGNUM” had run up an absolutely massive stack, dominating the tables and sitting on over $6,000 playing $2/$5.
It looked like it was all sunshine and rainbows with pocket aces, until he found himself facing a river donk jam.
Action
Playing six-handed at $2-$5 stakes with a $500 max buy-in, “BOUILLONDOSS” raised to $11.25 from the cutoff. “SIGNUM” three-bet to $50.50 on the button with A
A
before “Raptogro” four-bet to $130.00 from the small blind with JJ
. “BOUILLONDOSS” folded, “SIGNUM” five-bet to $260.00 and “Raptogro” called.
The flop was 872. Both players checked.
The turn was the 10. “Raptogro” checked, “SIGNUM” bet $348.56 and “Raptogro called.
The river was the J
. “Raptogro” went all in for $662.08 and “SIGNUM” called. “Raptogro” won $2,557.53 with a set of jacks.
Preflop Analysis
This was a devastating 500-big-blind cooler for “SIGNUM”, who likely brushed it off after already being up 11 buy-ins on that online poker table alone.
Preflop, “Raptogro” actually had a much closer than many realize because he is playing about 250 big blinds deep against “SIGNUM.” If they were each 100 big blinds deep, a cold four-bet would generate close to 0.6 EV.
Because they were playing so deep, it’s virtually a zero EV spot and a solver actually prefers to to fold pocket jacks a whopping 65% of the time. This time, he chose to four-bet, though he only decided to make it about 2.5 times three-bet size. The machine would prefer a larger size and go about four times the three-bet size out of position. Thus, it would four-bet to $200 instead of $130.
After it folded back around to “SIGNUM”, all options were on the table with equal EV. The solver mixes calling, a min-raise and jamming. However, it leans towards calling at a 65% rate. After the small raise, “Raptogro” had no choice but to call.
Postflop Analysis
On this eight-high flop in a five-bet pot, “Raptogro” could have led with about 50% of his range and had a 50-50 decision to do so with jacks. A donk lead, which is a bet into the preflop aggressor as the preflop caller, would force some overcards to fold. The lead would and should also have made an A-K move all in on the flop.
“SIGNUM”, once again, had all options available on the flop at an equal EV rate. When this occurs, you usually use your own image and your opponent’s image to make your decision. “SIGNUM” is known as a very good, very aggressive player and decided to mix in a very well-timed check, allowing “Raptogro’s” overcards to bet for perceived value and also keeping their bluffs in.
On the turn, the solver enjoys a range bet from “Raptogro.” He should be willing to get some value with his overpair and a gutshot straight draw. However, I believe it was a good adjustment as the population is heavily weighted toward strictly Q-Q+ and A-K in five-bet pots. “SIGNUM” used a good turn sizing and “Raptogro” called.
The river gave “Raptogro” an unlikely top set. Neither player should have a nine in a five-bet pot, so the four-liner here was completely irrelevant. Given that the stack-to-pot ratio was about 50%, “Raptogro” should jam his small percentage of tens and jacks as well as his pocket queens and kings.
With the pot odds, “SIGNUM” only needs to win about 26% of the time to make this a profitable call in the long-run. He had a lot higher of a chance than that and made a no-doubt call. Unfortunately, he was shown grim news and lost a $2,557.53 pot.
