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CoinPoker Mid-Stakes Cash Game World Championship: Flopped Flush vs. Flopped Set Carnage

In A Three-Bet Pot, A Set Vs. A Flush Led To A 250-Big Blind Pot


At the CoinPoker Mid-Stakes Cash Game World Championship, “Berbatov147” was the beneficiary of one of the sickest possible online poker coolers in a three-bet pot.

“Freeway1988” played with fire preflop and ended up getting burned on the way out.

Action

Playing six-handed at $2-$5 stakes with a $500 max buy-in, “luckerdoge420” opened to $11.25 from under the gun. “Freeway1988” called on the button with 3Heart Suit3Spade Suit and “Berbatov147” three-bet to $67.50 from the big blind with 8Club Suit7Club Suit.

While “luckerdoge420” folded, “Freeway1988” made the call.

The flop came 10Club Suit9Club Suit3Club Suit and, after “Berbatov147” checked, “Freeway1988” put out a $37.18 bet. “Berbatov147” called.

On the 4Heart Suit turn, “Freeway1988” bet again, this time for $100.39. “Berbatov147” went all in for $492.32 and “Freeway1988” called.

They ran the river twice.

The first river was the AClub Suit and the second river was the KDiamond Suit. “Berbatov147” faded the board pairing on both rivers and scooped the whole pot with a flush.

Analysis

Preflop, “Freeway1988” got a little frisky by calling pocket threes. A solver likes folding pocket fives and worse on the button more than half the time against an under-the-gun open. The machine likes to fold pocket threes nearly 75% of the time.

However, “Berbatov147” also went against the grain by three-betting 8-7 suited from the big blind. While a game theory optimal strategy would three-bet smaller suited connectors at a much higher frequency, the solver only three-bets 8-7 about 7.5% of the time.

Nevertheless, it is solver approved. It’s a great way to clear out equity and build a big pot. Once “Freeway1988” calls a low pocket pair on the button, he should call a three-bet more often than not.

On the ten-high clubs flop, “Berbatov147” should be betting this flop with almost his entire range. Low flushes can decide to check a bit more often as they’ll have to often deal with a fourth club on later streets and don’t want to have to guess for their entire stack. But a solver would bet 8Club Suit7Club Suit 90% of the time.

“Freeway1988” had a real dilemma and according to the machine, a small bet is the best option here, although it’s roughly a coinflip of a decision. “Berbatov147” had an easy call.

On the blank turn, “Freeway1988” decided to bet about 40% pot. This is not a sizing recommended by solvers, unfortunately, as he should either get 75% of the pot or check. A big bet size gains value from hands that could decide to call and fold river, like those containing an AClub Suit, overpairs, and top pairs.

The machine recommends a call from the flush on the turn. He took a different route. Perhaps it was an exploit because of a read on his opponent, but “Berbatov147” shoved and got his stack in in a good spot against a hand that’s always going to call.

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