Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost made history Thursday afternoon, becoming the 267th head of the Catholic Church and the first American to become Pope. He’ll serve under the name Pope Leo XIV.
As if that wasn’t enough, he cost bettors millions of dollars. Yes, you read that right. Gamblers were wagering millions on who would be the next leader of the Vatican City, and Prevost came through as a longshot.
By Thursday morning, crypto betting site Polymarket handled nearly $26 million worth of wagers on the event. Prediction market site Kalshi fielded another $6.7 million bets on the event. Kalshi is facing heat in some states, as regulators in New Jersey and Nevada believe Kalshi is operating an illegal gambling site.
When all the dust settled, the two sites accepted $40.4 million on the church’s pick.
According to Forbes, Prevost had just a 1.6% chance of earning the nod on Kalshi, while Polymarket was just a tiny bit higher at 1.8%. In other words, the two sites netted quite a profit when the decision was made.
A Look At The Rest Of The Field
Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the favorite on both sites with 26-28% of the betting, followed by Filipino prelate Luis Antonio Tagle with 23-24%. On Kalshi, Italian prelate Pierbattista Pizzaballa sat in third at 10%. Fellow Italian prelate Matteo Zuppi was in a tie for third on Polymarket with Pizzaballa at 10%.
Despite winning most of the bets, Kalshi paid out one bettor $52,641 after he bet $526 on the 1% shot that Prevost would emerge as the successor to Pope Francis.
Someone on Kalshi is very happy today
100x on Robert Prevost pic.twitter.com/3PmJn8xrz5
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) May 8, 2025
Whether any of the favorites earns the designation as the church’s next leader remains to be seen. The conclave is a secretive process that dates back centuries and some of the more well-known names among the group may not actually emerge as the favorites, according to experts.
“I think some cardinals who are faring well among the oddsmakers and media, including because of the prominent role they had under Pope Francis, may actually have less of a chance than some others who are considered long shots,” Tom Nash with Catholic Answers told the Catholic News Agency.
Nominees must earn two-thirds of the votes among cardinals involved in the conclave. Making predictions can be difficult because the process is not open to the public. Participants in the process are even barred from sending or receiving messages or news as the process plays out.
“The more public the process, the more likely cardinals can be negatively influenced by various means of coercion, including from political leaders,” he said. “And various parties have tried to influence the papal election process over the centuries.”
Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
