An Israeli Air Force reservist in hot water after allegedly using classified information to profit on prediction markets. A Tel Aviv court indicted the soldier for using information about last year’s strikes on Iran to win big on Polymarket.
According to reports, the major received information that the Israeli and US airstrikes were imminent. Then, he and passed that on to a civilian friend.
The civilian is believed to have bet under the username “ricosuave666.” He allegedly won $128,000 based on the insider information after the friend told him, “It’s starting.”
In January, we exposed a possible IDF insider who made $154K predicting Israeli strikes on Iran in 2025.
Today we can reveal that a Tel Aviv Court indictment reveals he’s an Air Force major.
According to the filing, the major won $128K on the Israeli strikes on Iran in June… https://t.co/Klg7qfcBwO pic.twitter.com/9RGXWZUng9
— PredictFolio (@PredictFolio) March 26, 2026
Both have now been indicted and face charges related to state security, bribery, and obstruction of justice.
Partners In Crime
According to court documents, the reservist received confidential information on June 12, a day before Israel started the operations. Israeli fighter jets were already on their way to Iran when the bet was placed. The market asked: “Israel military action against Iran by Friday?”
The original market drew just over $3.9 million in trading volume. According to the Times of Israel, the pair agreed to split the proceeds from the wager. The civilian reportedly created a crypto wallet to transfer the winnings to his accomplice. Both were arrested last month.
Additionally, the two men also allegedly used a similar scheme to win $1,000 on an Israeli attack in Yemen. They allegedly met in January to discuss possible trading on the more recent attacks on Iran. However, they decided against it after the civilian saw his username circulating on social media.
Later, he allegedly changed his profile and deleted WhatsApp messages related to the trading. The suspects’ names are currently sealed. After the indictments were announced, the Israeli Defense Forces said that “no operational harm was caused.”
Insider Trading Concerns Continue
The indictments come amid US lawmakers filing a bill that would ban federal employees from using prediction markets after some recent concerns about indsider trading on the platforms.
Earlier this year, suspicious wagering on the prospects of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remaining in power came to light. Several wagers totaling seven figures were made on Kalshi and Polymarket just before Khamenei was killed from airstrikes on his compound in Tehran.
Crypto-analytics firm Bubblemaps outlined “six suspected insiders” who wagered $1.2 million on a US strike by Feb. 28 on Polymarket. One user wagered $26,000 and collected over $200,000, a return of 657%.
This followed allegations of insider trading on Polymarket regarding the capture and arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
In December, a user also apparently won 22 of 23 bets on the platform for more than $1 million, all in a single day. All the wins involved Google search markets, and some on social media alleged the user was an insider with the company.
