Poker Hand Odds Explained – Your Poker Hands Probability Cheat Sheet
Poker is a game of skill, intuition, and mathematics. Whether you’re playing for pennies at a home game or a high-stakes tournament, understanding poker hand odds and probabilities can make the difference between being a big winner and a big loser.
If you are serious about raising the stakes, understanding the probability of various poker hands will be essential, and this guide is therefore mandatory reading.
If you’re just getting into the game and haven’t yet learned the rules, check out our full guide on Texas Hold’em. Be sure to keep track of the hand rankings at all times when tackling the learning curve with this game.
Are you ready? Now it’s time to master the basics of poker hand probability.
Poker Hands Probability
Poker hands probability refers to the chances of getting a particular combination of cards in your hand. This could be the probability of getting a pair, a straight, or even that elusive royal flush.
Understanding these probabilities will be the foundation of strategic decision-making, and every player should ensure they have a solid grasp of the fundamentals before playing online poker for any real stakes!
Poker Hand Probability Chart
To give you an overview of the various hands you could encounter, here’s a handy poker hand probability chart that outlines the chances of hitting each poker hand type using a standard 52-card deck. This can be used as a cheat sheet for poker hand probability.
This is about Texas Hold’em and will give you an idea of the odds of being dealt a range of poker hands, odds of hitting the near-impossible royal flush, or more common hands like a humble pair.
The odds below are your chance of being dealt a hand type such as one pair when you are dealt exactly five cards, not after seeing seven cards, as you will be by the river in Texas Hold’em. This is more accurate to your odds of hitting a specific holding by the time the flop gets dealt, and you’ve seen five cards.
| Hand Rank | Frequency | Probability | Odds | Example |
| Royal Flush | 4 | 0.000154% | 649,740:1 | A♥️ K♥️ Q♥️ J♥️ 10♥️ |
| Straight Flush | 36 | 0.00139% | 72,193:1 | 9♣️ 8♣️ 7♣️ 6♣️ 5♣️ |
| Four of a Kind | 624 | 0.024% | 4,164:1 | 7♥️ 7♠️ 7♦️ 7♣️ K♠️ |
| Full House | 3,744 | 0.1441% | 693:1 | J♣️ J♦️ J♠️ 9♥️ 9♠️ |
| Flush | 5,108 | 0.1965% | 508:1 | 2♦️ 6♦️ 9♦️ J♦️ Q♦️ |
| Straight | 10,200 | 0.39% | 254:1 | 5♠️ 6♥️ 7♣️ 8♦️ 9♠️ |
| Three of a Kind | 54,912 | 2.11% | 46:1 | Q♠️ Q♦️ Q♣️ 4♥️ 9♣️ |
| Two Pair | 123,552 | 4.75% | 21:1 | 10♦️ 10♣️ 3♠️ 3♥️ A♣️ |
| One Pair | 1,098,240 | 42.26% | 2.4:1 | J♠️ J♥️ 6♦️ 4♣️ 9♠️ |
| High Card | 1,302,540 | 50.12% | 2:1 | A♠️ 9♦️ 7♣️ 4♥️ 2♠️ |
Hole Cards Probability
Your hole cards are the two cards you’re dealt at the start of a Texas Hold’em hand, and they’re the first inflection point in poker hand probability. The strength of your hole cards will be the first determinant of how you’ll play your hand. Knowing the odds that you’ll pick up certain premium hands should therefore drastically influence your strategy as to which hands are worth playing in which positions.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the probabilities of some common hole card combinations. There are 1,326 hole card combos in the deck, so here are your odds of hitting certain specific combinations.
| Hand | Total Hand Combinations | Probability (%) | Odds |
| Any 2 Cards | 1,326 | 100% | Always |
| AK (or any specific unpaired hand) | 16 | 1.2% | 1 in 82.8 |
| AKs (or any specific suited hand) | 4 | 0.3% | 1 in 331.5 |
| AKo (or any specific off-suit hand) | 12 | 0.9% | 1 in 110.5 |
| AA (or any other specific pair) | 6 | 0.45% | 1 in 221 |
| KK+ (KK or a higher pair) | 12 | 0.9% | 1 in 110.5 |
| QQ+ | 18 | 1.4% | 1 in 73.7 |
| JJ+ | 24 | 1.8% | 1 in 55.3 |
| TT+ | 30 | 2.3% | 1 in 44.2 |
| QQ+, AK (QQ or a higher pair, or AK) | 34 | 2.5% | 1 in 39 |
| JJ+, AK | 40 | 3% | 1 in 33.2 |
| TT+, AK | 46 | 3.4% | 1 in 28.8 |
| Any Unpaired, Suited Cards | 312 | 23.5% | 1 in 4.3 |
| Any Unpaired, Unsuited Cards | 936 | 70.6% | 1 in 1.4 |
| Any Pocket Pair | 78 | 5.9% | 1 in 17 |
| Any Suited Connectors | 52 | 3.9% | 1 in 25.5 |
Odds of Flopping Made Hands
After the hole cards are dealt, the flop is the next crucial stage in Texas Hold’em. The flop consists of three community cards that all players can use in combination with their hole cards to make the best hand. Here are the odds of flopping specific hands based on your hole cards.
| Your Hole Cards | Flop (Your Hand) | Probability (%) | Odds |
| Unpaired Cards | A Pair | 32.40% | 1 in 3.1 |
| Pocket Pair | A Set | 11.80% | 1 in 8.5 |
| Connected Cards (JT thru 54) | A Straight | 1.30% | 1 in 77 |
| Suited Connectors | A Flush | 0.80% | 1 in 119 |
Common Texas Hold’em Poker Hand Odds
In Texas Hold’em, you’ll often encounter situations where you have a draw or are trying to improve your hand. Knowing the odds of hitting certain draws can give you the edge over your opponents. A full study of pot odds is required to really hone your post-flop edge in poker.
Here are the odds to improve from your drawing hands on the turn or river:
Flush Draw – 4.1:1
If you’re holding two suited cards, and two more of that suit hit the board, you have a flush draw and need one more card of the same suit to complete a flush. The odds of hitting your flush on the turn are about 4.1-to-1. You have a 35% chance of making your flush by the river, or once every 2.86 times. Note that you may have to pay more to continue on the turn to realize these odds.
Open-Ended Straight Draw – 4.8:1
An open-ended straight draw occurs when you have four consecutive cards with two possible ways to complete a straight, either if the top end of the straight hits or the bottom end of the straight hits. The odds of completing your straight on the turn are about 4.8-to-1. You have a 31.5% chance of making your straight by the river, or about once every 3.17 times. Again, you may have to put more money in the pot to realize this equity, however.
Hitting Overcards – 6.8:1
If you hold high cards (like AK) and completely whiff (miss) the flop, the odds of hitting one of your overcards (like an Ace or King) on the turn are about 6.8-to-1. You have a 24.1% chance of hitting one of your six available overcards by the river, about once every 4.15 times. If you’re willing to potentially pay up on the turn to keep going.
Improving One Pair Hands – 4.9:1
If you have one pair and are hoping to improve to two pair or three of a kind, the odds of improving your hand on the turn are about 4.9-to-1. You have a 30.6% chance of improving by the river, about once every 3.3 times.
Gutshot Straight Draw – 10.5:1
A gutshot straight draw happens when you need one specific card in the middle of your hand to complete a straight. The odds of hitting this specific card are about 10.5-to-1. Your odds of hitting it on either turn or river are about once every six times, or 16.5%.
Improving to a Set – 22:1
If you’re holding a pocket pair, the odds of improving to three of a kind (a set) on the turn are about 22-to-1. Your chance to hit it by the river is around 8.4%. Understanding the draws, possibilities, and odds associated with each of the decision points listed above will make the difference between a winning and losing player.
Common Heads-Up Poker Odds
When you’re playing tournaments or heads-up poker, it is essential to understand how specific hole cards perform against other particular holdings. Knowing the chance of one hand beating another before the flop is essential to understanding a poker hand’s probability of winning overall.
You can find poker hands probability calculators that will help you to find these answers, but here are a few hands that simply often collide in the game we all love, common matchups, if you will.
These matchups illustrate how the strength of hands changes based on the specific situation and give you a solid understanding of poker hand odds in real-world play.
Why Knowing the Odds Will Improve Your Game
Understanding poker hand probabilities is a fundamentally useful part of the study required to enhance your poker game. Whether you are just starting out or have been playing the game for years, it’s never too late to brush up on some basic poker hand probability decisions that come up extremely often.
Knowing the odds will help you make better decisions on the fly and improve your overall strategy.
If you don’t know how to calculate the odds at the table, you won’t be able to make accurate close decisions when it matters most. Even if you don’t like math, knowing poker hand odds is absolutely critical to becoming a profitable poker player.
There’s plenty more poker strategy content to further hone your game. Just be sure to keep studying.
Remember that any kind of gambling is risky and can lead to addiction. Gamble responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
FAQs
What is the 4/2 rule in poker?
The 42 rule in poker is a guideline used to estimate the probability of hitting your outs. Multiply the number of outs (cards that can improve your hand) by 4 on the flop or by 2 on the turn to estimate your percentage chance of hitting your hand on the next card.
Which hand is most likely to win in poker?
Preflop, the hand most likely to win in Texas Hold’em is pocket aces. It’s the only hand guaranteed to be a favorite against any other possible hole cards that might be dealt to another single opponent.
How do you calculate poker hand odds?
To calculate poker hand odds, divide the number of favorable outcomes (your outs) by the number of unfavorable outcomes (the remaining unknown cards). This gives you the probability of hitting your hand.
How rare is a royal flush?
A royal flush is extremely rare; the probability of a single player hitting one on the flop in Texas Hold’em if they hold suited broadway cards (without which it would be impossible!) is around 0.005%. The odds of this happening to you in any one hand are about 19,600 to 1.
What is the 80/20 rule in poker?
The 80/20 rule in poker suggests that 80% of your profit comes from 20% of your hands. This emphasizes the importance of playing only premium hands and knowing when to fold lesser hands.