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Jan 28 – Most people don’t recognize that they have predictable patterns—use this to your advantage

One of the most important tools you can use to be a successful poker player is pattern recognition. This can apply to betting patterns, action patterns, live tells, etcetera. In fact, when we think that we have picked up a live tell or read on someone we are actually identifying a previous pattern — one that we think that we can use to our advantage. Maybe someone’s hands shake when they’re very strong, other times they talk when they are weak. These are all patterns we have drawn from past play.

Weaker players, especially at the lower levels, find it difficult to break their patterns even if they are brought to their attention. I was dealing with a student of mine a few weeks ago that was having difficulty playing with a very big fish.  Every time my student called, the fish had the goods and every time that he folded, the fish was bluffing him. But it only took me a few rounds to figure out that the fish only bluffed when he perceived his opponents to be weak. Whenever his opponents had shown strength in the pot — whether it had been by betting multiple streets or calling down a raise — he never bluffed. I informed my student of this, and the next time they played together (several weeks later) the following hand went down.

My client, we will call him Joe, was in the big blind and called this opponent’s $20 raise from the small blind with 10 7 in a $5-$5 no-limit hold’em game, $800 effective. The flop came out Q 7 6.  The small blind bet out $25 and Joe called. The turn came a 10 giving my student two pair. The small blind checked and Joe bet $60 in position. The big blind thought for a while and then check-raised to $275. Now, this is a tough spot against an unknown that hasn’t shown me that he drastically overplays hands. I think a lot of the time folding is not giving up too much. There are only a few two pair combinations that 10-7 beats and I think that those hands are way more likely to lead the turn, just like with A-A, K-K or A-Q, than to go for a check-raise on such a draw-heavy board. However, this particular opponent had shown that he actually leads out on the turn with his nut hands, something that can be very rare at this level. So when he check-raised, his hand is actually a draw a fair amount of the time. The beauty of this situation was, due to pattern recognition, that my student was able to call the turn with the plan of folding to a large bet on the river because of the fact that we had never seen this opponent bluff when he perceived the other player to be strong. So, Joe called the raise. The river was the 2 and the small blind checked. Joe checked behind quickly and the small blind tabled K J for a busted 15-out draw. If the small blind had known that Joe would have folded to further aggression, then obviously, the best play for him would have been to bluff the river. But, much like others in his spot, he never recognizes the patterns in his own play.

Poker is very similar to conditional philosophy if people are not adapting or balancing their play. If we know our opponent’s tendencies then we can find the correct solution. Another hand went down later in the session where the big fish raised preflop in position and my student called in the big blind with A 6. The flop came out A 9 5 and both players checked. The turn was the 5 and Joe bet out 60 percent of the pot. Surprisingly the preflop raiser re-raised it 2.5 times more and Joe called. The river was an A, giving Joe aces-full. What’s Joe’s best play here? Well, let us go over his opponent’s tendencies: 1) He was very showdownish and would basically only bet nut hands with position on the river. 2) He was very call happy. 3) His bluffing frequency was as described above.

Versus another type of player who would always value bet a five and would bluff some of the time, checking would be a fair option. However, against this opponent, leading large should be far and away the best play. We would never want the guy to check behind the river with a five, we know he is not going to bluff and he will call down somewhat light.

Feb 22 – Turn check raises are seldom ever bluffs at the lower limits.

One of the most common patterns that I see in low level, live no-limit games, is turn check-raises being very strong. We, as players, commonly go through the same stages and styles of playing when we first learn the game. For some reason between $1-$2 and $5-$5, people almost never raise the turn on the come as a draw.

I think that when players are very green to the game, say in the first few months of playing, they tend to play their hands relatively straightforward. They see that they have a strong hand so they bet it. The “trapping” level of sophistication is not in their game. They could not even consider waiting until the turn to raise with a set. However, as they gain more experience, they start to learn that sometimes feigning weakness will allow one of their opponents to commit more money. This is where the $1-$2 to $5-$5 levels come into play. Now, at this stage of their poker development they think that trapping is actually the best play. So you will seldom see someone fast play dry flops with sets because they think that the right play is to slow play.

We can use this common tendency against them and we should not be afraid to bet and fold the turn to a check-raise. One of the things I have also noticed, as I have played quite a bit of $5-$5 no-limit hold’em at the Bicycle Casino lately, is that players give out a crazy amount of free cards on the turn — whenever a draw comes in — and I think it is because they are scared of being check-raised. But why should we be scared of betting if we know that when our opponent check-raises he always has us beat and he will just call with worse? Let us take a look at a few examples that I saw go down recently.

$5-$5 no-limit hold’em, $700 effective stacks. Two players limp in from up front and a tighter gentlemen raises on the button to $30 with A K. Both the limpers call. The flop comes out K 7 6. It gets checked to the preflop raiser who bets out $70. Both limpers call. The turn is the 10 and it gets checked to the preflop raiser once again. What do you think that the right play is here? Obviously the 10 is one of the worst cards in the deck for A K as it completes flush and straight draws. But can worse call us if we bet again? I would say definitely. Do we have to worry about folding our hand if we get check-raised? Certainty not against most straightforward competition that we encounter at $5-$5. However, I see 90 percent of the players at this level check back the turn. And the worse part is that if a blank comes on the river, they will sometimes pay off a large bet.

You could sometimes make the case of checking back the turn to fold to a river bet but remember to fold — I would not call unless you have reason to think that someone is trying to bluff you. The only time I check back these types of turns is if I have some sort of redraw and do not want to get jammed off of my hand. Say for example, instead of us having A K we have A K. Here, we may want to check back so that we do not get blown off of our nut-flush draw. However, if it gets checked to us on the river with a blank coming, we should definitely value bet. Another example would be if we flopped a set — and more often than not top set. Let us say we raise with Q Q over two limpers in a $5-$5 game. The board comes out Q 6 5 and we continuation bet 70 percent of the pot. Both of our opponents call. The turn now comes a 9 and it is checked to us again. In this example I would maintain that it is actually more likely that one of our opponents has a draw since we have three of the queens. Here, I might check the turn back to prevent getting raised and see if I can take a free card and fill up on the river. Whereas If I flopped middle set as the preflop raiser, I may continue to bet the turn because it is so much more likely that someone is calling me down with top pair. You can check out a discussion of these concepts on the episode “Hands From A Capped Cash Game” on the Seat Open Podcast at SeatopenPoker.net. ♠

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Follow Bart for daily strategy tips on twitter @barthanson. Check out his podcast “The Seat Open Podcast” on seatopenpoker.net and his video training site specifically for live No Limit players ­—CrushLivePoker.com. He also hosts Live at the Bike every Tuesday and Friday at 10:30 pm ET at LiveattheBike.com