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Preflop
Early in a $500 buy-in tournament, everyone at the table had been playing tight and passive. No one was acting too crazy.
At blinds of 75-150, the action folded to our Hero in the lojack seat who raised to 375 out of his 9,000 stack with K♠Q♠. Only the cutoff and button called.
When you raise and do not get three-bet, it is usually safe to assume that you are not up against premium preflop hands, like Q-Q and A-K. Instead, you are likely against marginal pairs, non-premium big cards, suited aces, and suited connectors.
The Flop
The flop came down Q♣5♠4♣, giving Hero top pair with a backdoor flush draw. He bet 600 into the 1,350 pot.
When you bet for value, make a point to choose a size that can realistically get called by worse made hands. On this board, if Hero bets large, perhaps 1,200 or more, his opponents will usually only call with top pairs and strong draws.
Since his top pair is only in marginal shape against that strong range, a large bet is not ideal. If he bets smaller, as he did, many made hands that he crushes can call, such as 7-7 and 6-5, allowing him to extract value.
The Turn
Both the cutoff and button called. The turn was the 10♠, giving Hero a flush draw in addition to his top pair. He bet 1,000 into the 3,150 pot.
Again, Hero’s bet is purely for value. By using a small size, numerous worse hands that are drawing thin can continue, and if Hero happens to be behind, he still has plenty of outs to improve on the river.
The cutoff raised to 3,000 and the button folded.
At this point, the cutoff probably has a premium hand, perhaps two pair and better, plus a few premium draws such as K♣J♣.
Although Hero is likely beat at the moment, calling with a flush draw makes sense given the excellent pot odds and implied odds. Hero has to put in 2,000 more to win the 7,150 pot plus the 2,000 he would be putting in, meaning he needs to win at least 2,000/9,150 = 21% of the time to justify calling.
Notice that in the worst-case scenario, when his opponent has a set, Hero will only win 18% of the time, making this call slightly unprofitable. If his opponent does not have a set, his call is immediately profitable.
Also notice that if his opponent happens to have a set, Hero will likely be able to win a sizable bet on the river if he improves to a flush, meaning he is risking 2,000 to win the 7,150 pot plus an additional 5,925 (the remaining stacks) on the river.
The River
Hero called 2,000 more. The river was the A♠, completing his flush. He decided to lead all-in because he feared that his opponent would check behind with two-pair or three of a kind on this “obviously” scary river, but still call a bet because the obvious flopped flush draw missed.
Hero was pleased to see his opponent instantly call with a set of fours.
So, where did the cutoff go wrong?
He should have simply raised Hero’s flop bet. When you flop a set on a draw-heavy board, you should usually try to build the pot. Instead, the cutoff elected to make a small raise on the turn, allowing Hero to profitably continue with all his draws. This time, his error cost him his tournament life.
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Jonathan Little is a WSOP bracelet winner, two-time WPT winner, and the 2024 PokerGO Cup champion with $9 million million in live tournament earnings. He is a best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and the 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site at PokerCoaching.com/cardplayer.
