This year’s Super Bowl that saw the Seattle Seahawks defeat the New England Patriots 29-13 produced weak betting numbers for Nevada casinos.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board reported that $133.8 million was wagered on the game, the lowest since 2016’s handle of $132.5 million. Casinos collected 7.4% of that in wins, a steep drop from last year’s 14.6%.
Still, it’s the second-highest hold percentage over the last five years. In total, Silver State books collected $9.9 million in revenue, the lowest amount in a decade.
Prediction Markets Cut Into Traditional Wagering
The drop in betting could be attributed to the growth of prediction markets (PMs), which continue offering sports event contracts. It seems likely that other states also felt the effects of PMs.
In recent months, major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel have jumped into the PM industry. DraftKings Predicts reported high trading volume on the Super Bowl.
Trading volume was high for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold to win the MVP. In the end, however, the award went to Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker. Overall, DraftKings Sportsbook reported more than $8 billion in potential payouts on the game.
State gaming regulators continue to push back against PMs, arguing that the platforms are simply a form of sports betting. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently told CNBC that there are some key differences.
“Underneath it all, it’s not the same thing at all,” Mansour said. “One, prediction markets are much broader. For example … we did over $1 billion on the Super Bowl … (but) our culture markets were huge this weekend.
“The second thing is it’s a market where people are trading against each other, there’s no house. The reason why people are flocking to prediction markets, especially Kalshi, is that our incentive as a company is that we win when the customers win. We don’t win when the customers lose and that’s a huge difference in the model.”
State, Federal Leaders Look For Changes
Mansour also noted that PMs are regulated at the federal level by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not by state gaming authorities. That has led to numerous lawsuits and cease-and-desist letters from state regulators over the last year.
For example, Polymarket lost a lawsuit brought by the Nevada Gaming Control Board earlier this month. The ruling forced the company to exit the market.
Criticism of PMs has also come at the federal level, with concerns about consumer protections, insider trading, and violations of state gaming laws.
In January, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D) filed a bill banning federal employees from using PMs after concerns about insider trading. After the Super Bowl, Rep. Dina Titus (D) also introduced the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act to prevent companies from “engaging in transactions involving sporting or casino-style event contracts.”
“Prediction markets should not be able to circumvent state gaming laws,” she posted on X. “Consumers deserve transparency, accountability, and protection against such predatory practices.”
Along with competition from PMs, the recent drop in Las Vegas tourism also may have affected Super Bowl betting numbers. The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority reported that visitor volume dropped 9.2% in December to 3.1 million.
