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Poker Hand of the Week: 2/26/16

You Decide What's The Best Play

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Give us your opinion in the comments section below for your chance at winning a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.

Ask any group of poker players how you played your hand and they’ll come up with dozens of different opinions. That’s just the nature of the game.

Each week, Card Player will select a hand from the high-stakes, big buy-in poker world, break it down and show that there’s more than one way to get the job done.

The Scenario

There are three players remaining in the tournament and you are already guaranteed a payout of $125,553. Second place takes home $195,267 and the winner will get $278,537. You are currently the chip leader with 6,265,000 at blinds of 50,000-100,000 with a 15,000 ante. Your opponents have 3,540,000 and 2,850,000, respectively.

The shortest stack raises to 200,000 on the button and you look down at ASpade Suit4Heart Suit in the small blind. Wanting to take control of the hand, you raise to 350,000 and the big blind folds. Your opponent calls, and the flop is 6Spade Suit5Diamond Suit3Club Suit.

You put in a continuation bet of 550,000 with your open-ended straight draw and your opponent wastes no time in moving all in for a total of 2,510,000.

The Questions

Do you call or fold? What are the ICM implications of calling and folding? Assuming you have 11 clean outs, are you getting the right price to call? If you call and fail to win the pot, where would that leave you in the tournament?

What Actually Happened

David OrmsbyAt the World Poker Tour Fallsview Poker Classic main event, Rob Forbes opted to call with ASpade Suit4Heart Suit on a flop of 6Spade Suit5Diamond Suit3Club Suit.

His all-in opponent, Derek Verrian, revealed 8Heart Suit6Heart Suit for top pair. The turn was the 2Diamond Suit, however, giving Forbes a straight and leaving Verrian drawing to a chop.

The river was the 10Club Suit and Verrian was eliminated in third place, earning $125,553. Although the pot gave Forbes a nearly 3-1 chip lead entering heads-up play, he couldn’t close out the tournament and had to settle for the $195,267 runner-up prize. The eventual winner was 26-year-old Ottawa poker pro David Ormsby, who banked $278,537 and his first WPT title.

What would you have done and why? Let us know in the comments section below and try not to be results oriented. The best answer will receive a six-month Card Player magazine digital subscription.

 
 
 
 

Comments

Jeremy15
10 months ago

I think it was a call but not an easy one.

You're likely drawing to the straight at ~22%, can hit an ace at ~8% and could already be ahead if he's got a 4 with a worse kicker. With >4M in the pot, needing ~2M to call, it is right around 33% so this is a good question.

Looking at being left with 3M should the pot odds fail you, that's a good enough amount to still play with. Add in a bit of knockout equity and calling is probably the right play.

I do believe a similar argument could be made for folding and ensuring hold of the chip lead to wait for a stronger spot... this one is pretty close.

 
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bigvert
10 months ago

uhhhhh, so the chip leader flops open-ended and leads into the short stack....and ya think the money isn't going in??? (lol) In the history of poker no one has ever folded an open-ended draw on the flop, while being the chip leader against the short stack, the money just goes in. If chip leader loses the hand he will think he just got unlucky, and if the short stack loses than he will think he got unlucky. Standard poker.

 
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Don17
10 months ago

This is a insta-call to me. His bet looks like a bluff, or a vulnerable hand and he wants me out of the pot. If he had a hand like 2 pair or better, he would call and try to get me to bluff or get all his chips in over the turn and river when I have a made hand.

With the 11 outs twice, and the bluffs in his range, i'm winning at least 50% of the time, and only needing 33%.

 
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