Poker Hand Matchup: Triple Barrel Bluff At The WSOP Main Event Final Table

Outcome

Preflop: With eight players remaining and blinds of 1,000,000-2,000,000 with a big blind ante of 2,000,000, Lauri Saaskilahti raised to 4,000,000 from the hijack with Q♠8♠. Greg Mueller called from the small blind with K♠J♦.

Flop: K♣6♣4♠

Mueller checked, and Saaskilahti bet 3,000,000. Mueller called.

Turn: 5♦

Mueller checked, and Saaskilahti bet 11,000,000. Mueller called and checked in the dark.

River: 6♥

Saaskilahti bet 35,000,000, and Mueller folded.

Analysis

With eight players remaining in the World Series of Poker main event, Greg Mueller and Lauri Saaskilahti were two of the bigger stacks, essentially tied for third with about 40 big blinds. The next few money jumps were relatively small, but the presence of short stack Han Feng with 12 big blinds meant both players had to tread cautiously against each other. 

Saaskilahti raised in the hijack with one of the worst hands he should have opened, a play justified because he covered all of the players behind him. 

Mueller called with a borderline holding in the big blind, one that could have been folded. K-J offsuit is at the bottom of the small blind defending range in this situation. 

The flop was actually pretty good for him, however, since the small blind will have Broadway cards that pair the king frequently. Still, most players check their entire range in this spot, which won’t cost much in theory. 

Saaskilahti had a good hand to start pressuring weak pairs and ace-high hands. Mueller had a clear check-call, since there was no incentive to bloat the pot. 

On the turn, Saaskilahti continued barreling in hopes of pressuring those same hands, but Mueller stuck around for the pairing river. He made an odd decision to check dark, which may have played a role in what happened next. 

Saaskilahti decided to empty the clip with a big bet, almost the size of the pot, which put Mueller in a difficult spot. He wasn’t likely to reach the river with many better hands, unless he slowplayed flopped sets. At the same time, Saaskilahti wasn’t telling the most coherent story, since betting big on the turn with a hand that had a six in it didn’t make much sense unless he had two pair or a set. 

Live tells are highly player dependent, but checking dark often signals that the out-of-position player is fine with the pot not growing any further. If that was Saaskilahti’s read, then he knew he could attack Mueller’s seemingly mediocre range. It worked, as Mueller couldn’t find the hero-call. 

The pot boosted Saaskilahti up in the counts, helping to eventually positioning himself for a heads-up match against Lucas Jumalon for $10 million and the title of world champ. Mueller did survive to third place, taking home $3.75 million.

• Photos by WSOP – Miguel Cortes