Poker Hand Matchup: Juan Dominguez vs. Ryan Riess

Outcome

Preflop, the final table six-handed, with the blinds at 250,000 and 500,000 with a big-blind ante of 500,000. Dominguez raised to 1,025,000 from the hijack and Riess called from the big blind. On the flop Riess checked. Dominguez bet 975,000. Riess called. On the turn Riess checked. Dominguez bet 1,500,000. Riess called. On the river Riess checked. Dominguez moved all-in. Riess called for 6,100,000.

Analysis

With seven players remaining, 2013 World Series of Poker main event champion Ryan Riess was the second shortest stack with roughly 18 big blinds. Juan Dominguez, who was fresh off a fifth-place finish in another high roller just a day earlier, was the chip leader with more than double his nearest opponent. Riess correctly decided to defend his big blind with a suited ace. The flop gave him a backdoor flush draw and a pair, so it made a lot of sense for him to check-call a continuation bet from the chip leader who had every reason to keep up the aggression given that Riess would be wary of busting while Manig Loeser remained in contention with less than 10 big blinds. On the turn Riess made aces up to take a dominant lead in the hand. He opted to check again to Dominguez, who bet just 1.5 million into a pot of 4,750,000. At this point the pot had grown to 6.25 million while Riess was left with 6.2 million after he made the call. Riess had to feel like he had the best hand the majority of the time, so his decision to check call the turn was likely motivated by wanting to allow Dominguez to continue bluffing. With so little left in his stack compared to the pot, Riess should have considered check-raising all-in for value. While he would likely fold out holdings like the pocket queens that Dominguez actually had, he could get called by A-K and other strong aces that were likely in Dominguez's range. Given the apparent strength of Riess’ line of check-calling the flop and the turn as a shorter stack, Dominguez might have been less likely to continue bluffing than Riess thought. Nobody but Dominguez knows if he would have pulled the trigger with a bluff had he not improved on the river, but as it happened, he hit a two-outer to make the best hand with a set. Reiss was committed to calling all-in given the strength of his hand and how under-represented he was, and unfortunately for him, Dominguez’s rivered set was enough to see him eliminated in sixth place. He earned $147,600 USD for his strong showing in this event while Dominguez extended his chip lead.