At the risk of sounding hopelessly old fashioned, I confess that I prefer to get my news from traditional sources. I like the media’s gate keepers. That is, when I want to find out the latest goings on in Washington DC, I tend to read the New York Times rather than checking out some dude blogging online or posting to Twitter/X. Same for poker updates, I’m partial to the very publication you are reading.
Prediction Markets
On the other hand, I am intrigued by the burgeoning boom in prediction markets. I like the idea of sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi. They allow you to essentially bet on anything.
You want action on a storm that might be coming to Bangkok? You want to take a position on whether Trump is in the Epstein files? You want to make an insurance bet on when the bull market is going to end? Kalshi and Polymarket are the places in which to do it.
Do you think more Trump x Epstein files will be made public this year?
26% chance https://t.co/MY7D0k7lPd
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 1, 2025
Technically, you’re not making bets, you’re taking out contracts on events happening or not happening and receiving odds on the outcomes. These companies bill themselves as decentralized prediction market platforms. But yeah, you’re basically betting.
Suddenly, the idea of people backing opinions with hard-earned money brings veracity to their opinions. Earlier this week, I saw Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
He’s a cool kid with a scrappy New York City vibe and a public-school education. He would not have seemed out of place at a WSOP final table. I liked all of that. But, even more, I liked his suggestion of how things like Polymarket and Kalshi could be used to get serious opinions from people who, as he stated, “put their money where their mouths are.”
Follow The Money
I’m not saying to drop the mainstream news-sources altogether, but I’m going to use the prediction markets as well.
“Someone tells me that [something] is blowing up on a Telegram community because a lot of people want peace of mind or they’re anxious; they want to know what is going to happen,” Coplan said on the show. “That’s why they tune into the news. That’s why they tune into X. And now there is this other datapoint, which is Polymarket. Whatever the topic is, they can see how likely it is. And it updates in perpetuity. So, instead of just relaying a newsfeed, you can go in and see what Polymarket is saying.”
I love the idea of getting opinions from gamblers who are risking money on their beliefs. As I write this, Polymarket has a 22 percent chance that Trump will pardon Ghislane Maxwell before 2027. There’s already $58,000 of volume on the outcome. For a guy like me, who works at a tabloid newspaper by day, where Maxwell and Epstein have been big in the news cycle lately, that’s interesting.
Beyond that, there is a leaderboard that shows participants making predictions for real money, with millions in action, profits/losses of six and seven figures, and their positions made public. Of course, a lot of the big bucks are still on sports betting. But, still, some people are even putting up money on a second coming of Jesus in 2025. That’s serious commitment!
Whatever intrigues you or keeps you up at night – whether its tariff rates, a TikTok sale in 2025, or the likelihood of the Miami Marlins winning tonight – you can get opinions from people who are willing to risk money on them. I’ll take that over gatekept editorial writers or blowhards on social media any day. And maybe, some time soon, I’ll be confident enough in one of my opinions to put my money where my mouth is.
Michael Kaplan is a journalist based in New York City. He is the author of six books including The Advantage Players, and has worked for publications that include Wired, GQ and the New York Post. He has written extensively on technology, gambling, and business — with a particular interest in spots where all three intersect. His article on Kelly “Baccarat Machine” Sun and Phil Ivey is currently in development as a feature film.
