Are Vladimir Putin’s days as the leader of Russia numbered? One Polymarket user thinks so and has wagered £306,000 ($408,000) on Polymarket that the former KGB intelligence officer won’t be at the helm of the country by the close of this year.
The trader has a chance to score a $2.5 million profit if the Russian strongman exits the scene before the beginning of 2027, according to The Telegraph. The trading market puts that prospect at just 12% and comes as concerns about insider trading on prediction markets have made headlines.
Other Russia-Ukraine Trading
The anonymous trader goes by the username “ZnotluvuiSamez” on the platform and has a Ukrainian flag in his or her profile. ZnotluvuiSamez joined Polymarket in April and has made other trades related to the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
That includes a $60,000 bet on Ukraine retaking the Crimea region, currently occupied by Russian forces, by Dec 31. The trader has put up another $5,000 on Ukraine signing a peace agreement with Russia by Aug 31.
Putin has held a grip on power since 1999 but has seen his popularity decline in recent months as the invasion of Ukraine drags on and Russian forces have struggled to retake the former Soviet client state.
Ukraine has also engaged in several recent high-profile attacks deep into Russian territory, including a major drone strike on Moscow.
Political Events Take Center Stage On Prediction Markets
The Putin trading follows similar moves related to other international political events in recent months. In May, an Israeli airman alleged that the entire air force was gambling on prediction markets. This followed the air force major allegedly using classified information to profit on Polymarket.
Earlier this year, suspicious wagering on the prospects of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remaining in power came to light.
Several bettors combined to wager seven figures on the outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket just before the leader was killed from airstrikes on his compound in Tehran.
This followed allegations of insider trading on Polymarket regarding the capture and arrest of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
In December, a user also apparently won 22 of 23 bets in a single day for more than $1 million. All the wins involved Google search markets, and some on social media alleged the user was an insider with the company.