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Win On Polymarket Raises Concerns About Prediction Markets

Meta Engineer Red Flags Incident As Insider Trading


A picture of "insider trading" written on a sticky note.

Concerns are growing about a possible case of insider trading involving Polymarket prediction markets. A user apparently recently won 22 of 23 bets on the platform for more than $1 million, all in a single day.

All the trades involved Google search markets, and some on social media have alleged that the user, known as “AlphaRacoon,” was an insider with the company.

Haeju Jeong, a blockchain and full-stack engineer at Meta, was one of the first to point to AlphaRacoon’s success on the platform.

“Google accidentally pushed the (search) results early, then removed them, but not before it revealed he went 22/23 on his bets and ballooned to $3.9M in open positions,” he noted on Twitter. “This isn’t a lucky streak. He previously made $150K+ predicting the early release of Gemini 3.0 before results were out.

“At this point, it’s obvious: He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for quick money. It’s one of the wildest things I’ve seen on the platform.”

No Charges Have Been Filed

The user later changed his or her username, but that move was available via blockchain technology, according to Jeong. AlphaRacoon won bets that included the most searched person of the year and who would be in the top five searches of the year.

Polymarket hasn’t commented on the situation, and Yahoo Finance noted that the company’s terms of service don’t cover insider trading. Google hasn’t commented, and nobody charged AlphaRacoon with any crimes related to the winnings.

Incident Highlights Concerns Over Prediction Markets

The issue seems to confirm some lawmakers’ and state regulators’ concerns about regulation, integrity, and other issues for sports prediction firms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others. Federal legislators recently circulated a draft letter outlining some of those concerns.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates the industry. However, many argue that sports prediction markets are nothing more than sports betting flouting state gaming laws.

“The CFTC must not override state and tribal law allowing sports betting in all 50 states by permitting some companies to categorize their sports betting activities as ‘event contracts,’” legislators wrote in the letter, a bipartisan effort, with Sen. Catherin Cortez Masto, D-NV, and Sen. John Curtis, R-UT, serving as two of the document’s signatories.

The lawmakers questioned why the CFTC isn’t regulating the industry’s sports prediction markets and how the CFTC advises contract market firms seeking authority on how they comply with state laws. The letter also outlined concerns about consumer protection and even age limits for sports event contracts.

“Some companies are claiming to allow legal sports betting in all 50 states,” lawmakers wrote. “This action – and the CFTC’s unwillingness to stop it – contradicts both the letter and the intent of the law. The commission cannot sidestep its statutory obligations by declining to enforce prohibitions that Congress enacted. Doing so undermines the sovereign authority of states and tribes to regulate gambling within their jurisdictions and risks federalizing an area of law that the Supreme Court has held is reserved to the states.”

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