Like many in the poker world, I was strapping in for an epic heads-up battle in the World Series of Poker $250,000 Super High Roller between Seth Davies and Alex Foxen.
With the blinds at 400,000-800,000 with an 800,000 big blind ante, Foxen had a slim advantage over Davies, ahead 49.5 million to 45 million.
Both players were incredibly deep, with 118 big blinds between them. It appeared, on the surface, that it would take hours to crown a champion in the most expensive event at the WSOP.
Unbelievably, it took just two hands, and Seth Davies earned his first-career bracelet and over $4.75 million in stunning fashion.
Hand #1: Action
Alex Foxen opened to 2,000,000 with A
Q
from the small blind. Seth Davies went all in for 44,200,000 with AJ
from the big blind and Foxen called.
The board ran out 5
JT94. Davies won 89,200,000 with a pair of jacks.
Hand #1: Analysis
All in all, this was just a cooler as both players would have got their stacks preflop no matter what. But was Davies right to just three-bet jam with such a large stack?
After breaking it down with both the solvers and other professional poker players, the answer is a resounding yes.
According to GTO Wizard, against a normal two big blind open at about 50 big blinds deep, the EV difference between raising and going all in is just 0.01. The machine does slightly favor a raise.
However, when you take into consideration that Foxen raised to 2.5 big blinds, this will push the edge more towards an all in from Davies. This is because bigger preflop raises reduces postflop playability.
You only have to look a notch further down in the sim to see that. Against a normal two big blind open size at 40 big blinds, Davies has a solver approved all in with hands like small pairs, ace-deuce offsuit, and both ace-jack and ace-queen offsuit.
We also don’t know if Davies would have wanted to play a higher variance game against Foxen, or what his preflop adjustments may have been.
Hand #2: Action
Seth Davies limped from the small blind with AA and Alex Foxen went all in for 4,475,000 from the big blind with K5. Davies made the call.
The board ran out K2652. Davies won 9,750,000 with two pair, aces and deuces to win more than $4.7 million and his first WSOP bracelet.
Photo credit: PokerGO.
