Poker Hand Matchup: Manig Loeser vs. Jake Schindler

Outcome

Preflop, eight-handed, with the blinds of 175,000 and 350,000 with a 350,000 big-blind ante. Loeser raised to 700,000 from middle position and Schindler called from the hijack. On the flop Loeser checked. Schindler bet 800,000 and Loeser called. On the turn Loeser checked. Schindler bet 2,300,000 and Loeser folded.

Analysis

Manig Loeser came into the eight-handed final table of this high roller event in second chip position, but the difference between Loeser’s stack and the shortest stack was equal to only roughly half of the difference between him and Dominguez. Eighth place was set to receive €60,000 while a top-three finish would be worth €325,000 or more. As a result, Loeser must have felt pressure to avoid getting involved in too big of a pot without a very strong holding. Having flopped top pair on a draw-heavy board, some might lean towards betting to charge an opponent if they are indeed drawing. Instead Loeser checked, likely reasoning that his top pair with a jack kicker is either way ahead or way behind of his opponent’s calling range. Checking controls the pot size while also allowing his opponent’s worst hands to bluff. Schindler received a best-case scenario flop for his pocket sixes and bet 800,000 into a pot of just over 2.1 million. Loeser made the call and the nine on the turn complicated the board, as it could have completed some straight draws or given extra equity to some of the middling suited connecters that might now be a pair with a straight draw or even two pair. Loeser continued with his pot control approach, checking to Schindler who fired a bet of almost two-thirds the size of the pot. Schindler had just more than 5.5 million chips remaining, less than a pot-sized bet on the river. Loeser likely figured that he would often be facing a shove on the river were he to call the turn. Given Schindler’s strong line of betting into him on the turn after he was the initial raiser and had check-called the flop, Loeser opted to preserve his stack and fold his top pair.