Poker Hand Matchup: Patrik Antonius vs. Christoph Vogelsang

Outcome

Preflop, final table, eight handed, with the blinds at 25,000 and 50,000 and a 5,000 ante, Antonius raised to 100,000 from late position, and Vogelsang called in the big blind. On the flop Vogelsang checked, Antonius bet 60,000, and Vogelsang called. On the turn Vogelsang checked, Antonius bet 125,000, and Vogelsang called. On the river Vogelsang checked, Antonius bet 250,000, and Vogelsang called.

Analysis

Antonius must have felt pretty confident on the river that his opponent did not have an Ace to entertain this value bet. He probably surmised it was more likely his opponent was check calling with a smaller Queen or maybe the Eight. But there were more Aces left in the deck for Vogelsang than Queens, and people don't always three-bet out of the blinds with an Ace. With no flush draw and just some gutshot straight draws available (including a double belly buster for J-10) Vogelsang's calls point towards some kind of pair. Since Antonius is never going to get a fold from an Ace with any bet he could make with his chip position, and he's never going to get called by J-10, the bet seems to have been contrived entirely to get a call from something like Q-10. Antonius wasn't showing Vogelsang too much respect with this thin value bet, and his remaining 450,000 was reduced to just 200,000 after Vogelsang check-called with his winner. Antonius was eliminated soon after in 8th for £109,455, while Vogelsang ended up in 3rd for £383,200.