Nines can be good hands in lowball, and they can be bad. As poker writers keep saying, it depends. Lowball, more than any other form of limit poker, is very position-dependent. It is also very situation-dependent. Eights and better almost "play themselves" – although eights can be a little tricky sometimes – but proper play of nines may very well prove to be the difference between a winning and losing session.
I know some players who rarely play nines. I would say "never," except that once in a while such a player finds himself in a situation in which a 9 begs to be played. For example, in a double limit game, the livest player at the table limps in from the small blind. Mr. Nevernine might raise in this spot with a pat 9 – and he might not. When the live one takes three cards, though, he probably stands pat with the hand. Mr. Nevernine might even be a winning player overall, but he certainly doesn't win as much as he should, since he doesn't take advantage of enough situations with positive expectation.
But, apart from that, nines are great when played in position and in the right situation. They're very bad when misplayed.
Here are some properly played nines:
The live one limps in from first position in a $10-$20 Southern California double limit game. Solid Joe calls from the cutoff position. You're on the button with 9-8-7-6-4. Your image is on the tight side. You raise. The small blind folds and the big blind calls. The opener and Joe both call. The big blind draws one card. The opener draws two cards. Joe draws one card. You stand pat. After the draw, everyone checks to you. You show your rough 9 and take the pot. You don't know for sure what anyone had, except, of course, for the opener. He had three low cards, probably three cards 7 and lower, although if he had the joker, he might very well have had an 8 in there. You can guess at what the others had. The big blind was probably drawing one card to a rough 7 or an 8. He likely was not drawing one to a 9 in a raised pot. If he had a draw to a good 7, he might have reraised. If he had a draw to better, he very likely would have reraised. Joe was probably drawing to an 8. When the live one opened, he would have raised with any better one-card draw. You had the best of it against those three draws. Mike Caro's Poker Probe shows that, typically, you win about 32 percent of the time in this situation. As long as you win more than 25 percent of the time, your expectation is positive.
Here's the same situation exactly, except this time after the draw the big blind bets and the live one calls. Joe folds. Your proper play is to fold, for two reasons. One, the big blind is not going to bluff into three players, one of whom is a known calling station (the live one who opened). If he's not bluffing, your 9 is no good. Two, when the live one calls, he might have a worse hand than yours, but it's not likely. So, this also shows potential misplay of a 9. Calling here would be a huge mistake.
Again, here's the same situation, but this time after the draw the big blind bets and no one else calls. Your proper play still is to fold, this time for only one reason. That reason remains the same as the first reason in the previous situation. When the big blind bet, he didn't know everyone would fold.
I'm sorry to be repetitious, but this is a nice illustrative hand. Again, it's the same situation, but this time after the draw the big blind checks, the opener checks, and Joe bets. Whether or not you call now depends on what you know of Joe. Has he bluffed before in a similar situation? Do you think he might bluff as often as one time in six? If so, you should probably call. You have to win only one time out of six to profit. Remember, though, that you will lose about 80 percent of the time here. As long as you win more than the pot is offering in terms of odds, you profit. Actually, though, Joe probably needs to bluff about one time in five to make your call profitable. This is because the big blind might have drawn to and made an 8 and passed it after the draw, but will call when you just call. The live one might have done the same. So, you need a bit better return to offset those times. But, in general, if the bettor bluffs too seldom, don't call; if he bluffs a bit more than game theory dictates, call; if he bluffs just right, it doesn't matter what you do. How much is "just right" is beyond the scope of this column, because it is much more complicated than a situation involving only two players.
And here's still one more. Everything is the same as the preceding, except this time it's the live one who bets, and Joe folds. What should you do? Part of the reason this live one is so beloved in this game is that he bluffs about half the hands he plays. Of course, you call. You lose sometimes because the big blind would always pass and overcall here, but you're still money ahead by calling. And when the live one shows you a two-card bicycle, don't do what some of the sourpusses who seem to have a home in lowball games do. Don't gripe and moan about "getting beat by another two-card draw." Just smile and congratulate the live one on his great draw – and be happy that he keeps drawing two cards. If he didn't make one of those hands once in a while, he'd quit doing it. So, he got you this time; so what? He'll give it back another time. What do those sourpusses want, to compete in pots only against one-card draws that have a legitimate excuse for beating them? Do they want the live one to quit drawing two cards?
This situation immediately brings to mind a huge mistake some players make that nicely illustrates one of the misplays of a 9. After everyone checks, some players bet in this spot. Here is a situation in which most of the time, this is a bet that can only lose if called. If anyone calls, it is because he passed a better hand than that rough 9. Oh, sure, the live one will call in this situation with a 10, but that doesn't happen often enough to warrant betting. In this spot, show down your 9, and if someone has a better hand, be pleased that he didn't put you to the test by betting. Why do people bet here? I've never understood. Maybe they want to disguise that they play rough nines. Why? To look tighter? You don't want to discourage calls in a game like this. Maybe they think they're setting someone up for a call when they have a good hand. That's not necessary. Players in a game like this are going to call with the same hands they would anyway. Their reasons don't matter, though. Betting here is just throwing money away.
OK, here's a new situation. Again, you're on the button. Everyone passes to Joe, who raise-opens from the cutoff position. You have the same hand. You know that Joe raise-opens with any good hand he's going to play. This means any pat hand and, from this position, any one-card draw to an 8 or better. You raise. Why? Because given Joe's playing requirements, he's drawing one card about 80 percent of the time, and you have the best of it against any one-card draw. You want to freeze out the blinds. You want their dead money in the pot. They might come in for just two bets, but three makes it a lot harder for them. If they have you beat, you'll hear from them. Calling is not good here. Sometimes you're going to lose three, and maybe more, bets in this spot. So what? That's why they call it gambling. Just gamble with the best of it, and you'll come out ahead. More than three-fourths of the time in this situation you'll win four small bets (including the blinds) for an investment of three.
OK, here's a bad play. I'm going to give you that same hand. What a nightmare – being forced to play lowball hand after hand with that crummy 9! The live one limps in, weak-tight Sue calls, and Joe raises. Toss that 9! Lots of players misplay this hand. Let's say you call. This might entice one of the blinds. OK, now the big blind draws one, the live one draws two, Sue draws two, and Joe draws one. That's about as good as you can hope for. Against typical hands, again according to Poker Probe, you win just a shade more than 20 percent of the time. That's the barest of edges, but when you consider the bet after the draw, your variation is much too huge to warrant playing. But the situation is much worse than that, because some percentage of the time the big blind is pat and reraises. Once that happens, your hand is virtually dead. Another part of the time Joe is pat, and ditto for your hand. That probably subtracts several points from your winning percentage, making the hand decidedly negative expectation. So, instead of calling, you raise. That's a bad play, yet I see players do it all the time. They think they're going to power the live one and Sue out of the hand, and get Joe to break a smooth 9 or have the best of it if Joe is drawing all the time. But what happens most of the time is that they all come in, and then you've got much the worst of it. If either the blind or Joe stands pat, you need two cards – and even then you might not be drawing live! Suddenly, you've become the live one.
Here's another. We'll put you just to the left of the live one, which is terrific position. And we're giving you that same hand. The live one limps in, again from first position. You raise, to isolate the live one. Yeah, right. Everyone knows you don't need a big hand to raise him. They know you're playing the player. They're going to come in with the same hands they would anyway. If a pat hand is out behind you, you're taking much the worst of it. If a solid player reraises with a good one-card draw – and that's what solid players do in this situation – you're faced with a very difficult situation. Do you raise again, and maybe look at still another bet? Now, you've lost at least four bets on a hand you never should have played. That's right. Don't play. Resist the temptation. Just sigh and say to yourself, "Wish I was on the button." Proper opening strategy has you not opening with rough pat nines in this position. You certainly don't want to raise with one and give everyone a free shot at you. You need a pat 8 or better here, or a good one-card draw. And "good" here means about a 7-5 draw (or 7-6 with the joker) or better. Now, if your 9 is a 9-7 or better, certainly raise. Then, if players come in behind you, you probably draw one card even if the live one takes two cards. But don't play a 9-7-6-5-4. I'm talking about 9-7-6-3-joker, or 9-7-5 or better.
So, when do you play this hand against the live one? You need to be no more than two positions to the right of the button, and you need the live one to have limped in and either no callers or one. Then, you raise.
Here's another misplay of the same hand. This time you're in the big blind. The live one opens. Sue calls. Joe calls. The dealer calls. They all have garbage, right? Sure. One of them would have raised otherwise. It doesn't matter. Your position is terrible. Against four players, even with two of them taking two cards, you do not have the best of it. Sue could possibly have a rough 8, with which she never raises, and stand pat right behind you. Or, if you stand pat and the next two players take two cards and Joe takes one, the dealer might have a 9-7 with which he was planning on taking one card and change his mind and also stand pat. After all, you didn't raise, so you must have worse than a 9-7. So, what should you do with your rough 9 in the big blind? Well, you can't draw two cards, because drawing two cards to a rough 7 is even worse than standing pat. Stand pat and hope for the best. But didn't I just say not to play the hand? No, not quite. I just don't want you to raise with it. The way you played it, you'll win less than a fifth of the time. So what? You got in for free. If you win 15 percent of the time because no one makes a hand and no one bets, that's like free money. Don't make your situation even worse by increasing your investment. If you raise, everyone has money odds to call. You can raise with the hand against two players, and maybe even three, but not four. And yet, this is another play I see all the time. Call. Stand pat. Check. Fold if anyone bets, unless you know that player to bluff far too much. Weak players are afraid to bluff in this situation because they're sure the pat hand will call. You don't have to tell them you have no intention of calling. If someone bets, throw away your hand. Everyone will think you had a 10 that you were hoping to sneak by, and maybe even a jack. And what's another misplay of the hand? To call after checking when Sue bets. You hear Salty Sam say after calling and losing to her 7-6-5-4, "I knew she had a hand, but the pot was too big. I wouldn't have called if anyone else did." Duh.
All of these situations play similarly in a $20-limit Northern California single limit game.
And I haven't covered nearly all of the situations involving the play – and misplay – of nines. I'll leave that for another time.