Hi. Come on in. I have half a bucket of cold chicken left from last night. I ate all of the biscuits – with peanut butter.
Can you recall who said, "I've never seen such lousy, rotten cards?" Answer: You. You've probably said it many times. I doubt if there are more than nine poker players in the entire world who haven't said it on at least four dozen occasions. And it's always uttered in an exasperated tone of voice. "I've never seen such lousy, rotten cards." Maybe, maybe not.
A dry run of cards can be frustrating, especially in a poker game in which the action is heavy and your opponents can't seem to give away their chips fast enough.
Every pot is a monster, and most are being won by middling hands. You're beginning to wonder if these people are playing with the same deck of cards you are. Starting hands appear to come to you with the same frequency as Halley's comet.
"I've never seen such lousy, rotten cards." Whenever I hear my own mouth utter that phrase of frustration, I'm quick to remind myself that it's not true. I have indeed seen such lousy, rotten cards – many times. And so have you! It's just another part of what goes into making up probability. Sometimes the cards run wonderfully, and sometimes they run with the dull monotony of unsalted potato soup.
Ideally, I'd like to have good cards running all over me – and no potato soup. But, I'd settle for cards at probability and let skill decide my wins and losses. "But what is probability and how do I know if I'm at, above, or below its expectancy?" I knew you'd ask eventually.
I've put together some simple numbers. You can expand upon them if you wish. Let's begin by looking at the probability of being dealt various starting hands in a game of seven-card stud. We'll begin at the top – three aces. Probability says that you should be dealt three aces as your starting hand once out of each 5,525 deals. (We'll assume your game is being dealt an average of 30 hands per hour, and you play poker six hours a day. Adjust these figures to your actual game and playing conditions.)
You should be dealt those elusive three aces once each 184 hours of play, which should be once every 30 playing days. (That's 5,525 hands divided by 30 hands per hour, which is then divided by your six hours of playing time per day.) If you played every day, you could expect to be rolled up with aces once a month. This holds true for any specific three of a kind, deuces through aces.
The probability of being dealt any three of a kind is once in every 425 deals. That is once every 14 hours of playing time, which comes to two and one-third playing days. You'll be dealt a pair of aces in your starting seven-card stud hand about once in each 75 deals, according to probability. That means you'll start with that top pair every two and one-half hours. These numbers would also be the same for any specific pair, deuces through aces.
Your probability of receiving what most players consider a raising pair – tens, jacks, queens, kings, or aces – is one in 15 deals. That gives you a third-street raising hand every 30 minutes. Probability also dictates that you should get a pair of some kind – deuces through aces – once in six deals, which results in having a pair in your first three cards about every 11 minutes while playing seven-card stud.
You should be dealt three parts of a straight flush, according to probability, once in every 85 deals. So, watch for that starting hand to appear approximately every two hours and 50 minutes. The dealer should toss you a three-flush on third street about once each 20 times he shuffles and deals. So, you'll start suited about every 40 minutes if probability isn't napping under the table.
You'll be presented with the opportunity of playing for a straight with about the same frequency as you'll receive some kind of pair.
I remind you that probability isn't a constant, so don't set your watch by any of this. Another time, we'll do this with hold'em.
It's time for my nap. Take those last two chicken legs and kill the light on your way out.
Editor's note: Roy West, author of the bestseller 7 Card Stud, the Complete Course in Winning (available from Card Player), continues to give his successful poker lessons in Las Vegas to both tourists and locals. Ladies are welcome. Get his toll-free 800 number from his ad on Page 114.