When it comes to dealing with football injuries, sometimes I'm not sure whether the many published injury lists are a help or a hindrance to sports bettors.
Such lists can be found in many places during the football season. It seems like just about every major website that is into serious coverage of football has an injury list, or reissues one compiled by one of several sports-information services that syndicate them. Quite often these lists also appear in the agate type of your local newspaper.
Here's why I'm so dubious about their usefulness to serious handicappers:
1. Too often, they list any player who left the field of play as "questionable."
"Questionable," as far as carefully handicapping a game goes, is almost useless. Such categorization doesn't tell you whether the player will play in the next game, whether he will be held out of the game, or – sometimes most deceptively – whether he will play in the game despite his injury. The situation in which a key player plays despite his injury (ankle sprain, shoulder separation, or whatever) can be a real money burner.
2. Too often, initial reports of an injury do not get updated.
Many times, a player removed from a game with a suspected injury gets his name placed on the injury list, and it stays there, no matter what. Many players listed as "doubtful" on Monday while they undergo a precautionary X-ray or MRI might be routinely cleared for practice at full speed by Tuesday. Yet, many times those names will stay on the widely published injury lists even when those players are A-OK and ready to roll. Thanks!
3. Some players get placed on the wrong team!
Human beings compile and input these lists; thus, there will be occasional errors. But, it's obvious that those humans rarely proofread the lists. Here are some examples: Injured players for Pennsylvania appeared under Penn State. One year, all the injured players for Air Force were listed under Akron. You get the idea. You waste your time trying to find out how important a guy is before realizing he's not even on the team!
4. Some players get placed in the wrong sport!
This becomes a problem once basketball season starts overlapping with football season. It's inevitable that basketball "guards" and "centers" who are out for the season due to academics or injury will get listed on the football rundowns. And, of course, my favorite is when players from women's college hoops teams are placed on the men's injury lists – and stay there!
5. Some coaches like to hide injuries.
Colleges are not required to provide injury reports (NFL teams are). Many college coaches believe their injured players are their own team's business, and not their opponent's. They don't want to inform their opponents where they are thin, weak, or inexperienced. And many coaches come from the old school, where there's a big difference between a player in pain and an injured player. If one of their players is hurting, they think there's no reason why the upcoming foe has to know about him.
6. Many coaches like to mislead.
How many times have you seen certain coaches, especially before big games, "cry poor" about the terrible physical status of their teams? They like to use the double-pronged psychological ploy of building up their opponent while at the same time running down all of their banged-up players, leading to their "desperate" situation. Then, come game day, just about every banged-up player who was discussed at midweek plays.
7. Radio and TV sports shows love to overdramatize.
You must understand that when it comes to guys on radio sports talk shows, hype and sensation are their business. When it comes to TV (ESPN excepted), many of the people can't even pronounce the players' names correctly. Sometimes I'm convinced that many radio guys believe that teams that list three of their starting offensive linemen as "questionable" early in the week will have to play that weekend with only two offensive linemen in the game – eight against 11! To them, any injury means "out," regardless of the severity. To them, if they don't know a guy's backup, there is no backup. Radio talk shows are probably the worst source you can use for injury information.
So, what should you do?
Here's a quick list of suggestions: First and foremost, don't believe everything you read or hear. Be somewhat skeptical. Don't get in the habit of reading an entire injury list and then basing your wagers on what you read; virtually all of the lists are incomplete and/or inaccurate. You should first select your list of games for potential "plays," and then review the injury situation of the teams involved to see if any of your opinions are fazed. If they are fazed, and you intend to wager a substantial amount of money, you should research the situation further before proceeding. Out-of-town newspapers can be helpful in clarifying or updating a situation. Team or booster websites might help (beware of outdated material, however). And perhaps the best source of solid information are knowledgeable radio or TV reports emanating from the site of the game, preferably on the day of the game. In these days of intense media competition, such reports are becoming more and more prevalent in both radio and TV.
As a general rule, when it comes to conflicting injury information, it's usually best to put your faith in later reports vs. earlier reports. And it's usually better to trust sources closer to the scene than those farther away.
When it comes to major injuries to key players, beware of the "injury myth" phenomenon. The injury myth occurs when a team missing one of its best players in an important game rises up emotionally for that opponent to prove it can still win without that key player, but then suffers an emotional letdown and falls victim to a lesser foe the ensuing week.
Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of The Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 46 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every game, exclusive insider reports, handy pointspread logs, widely followed power ratings, and its special ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. If you have never seen The Gold Sheet and would like to peruse a complimentary sample copy, call The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653) and mention that you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com.