Hands containing an A-2-3 ("ABC") are among the best in loose limit Omaha high-low games. My definition of loose is an average of more than five players seeing the flop. But how good are ABCs in tight pot-limit games?
Early in a pot-limit Omaha high-low tournament, you pick up an A-2-3-J, with the jack and deuce both diamonds. The blinds are $10-$15. Under the gun, you smooth-call the $15 because low hands pay off better with lots of company.
There is one other $15 crawler behind you, and then the button raises $35, making it $50 to go. The small blind folds, and the big blind calls. What should you do?
Unless you are involved in domination mind games, you should just call. You are content with the raise and do not want anyone else to fold. If one of the other three players has an A-2 or A-3, you are barely ahead of the percentages. If you run a simulation (for example, with Caro's Poker Probe) with your hand vs. a hand containing an A-2 and two random hands, your hand wins about 29 percent of the time (25 percent is average). And if either of the two random hands happens to contain an A-3 or 2-3, your expectation is about average.
In four-way action (with $210 in the pot), the flop comes 10-7-5 rainbow (three different suits). The big blind leads with $100. What should you do?
Do not make the mistake of thinking that two low cards on the flop make you a favorite to win money. Although this ABC hand will now make a nut low about 72 percent of the time, some of your lows will be tied and you will receive only a quarter (or sixth) of the pot. And since you have very little chance of winning high, you are actually a slight percentage underdog in this hand! That means that you are calling because you will lose less in the long run by calling than by folding. Thus, you do not want to increase your investment.
So, you call, the crawler behind you folds, and the button (who raised before the flop) calls. It is interesting to stop here and note what would happen if you ran a simulation with this flop and three hands: your hand, a second hand with an A-2 and two other random cards, and a third hand with four random cards. The random hand would win the most – about 37 percent of the time. The A-2 hand would win about 33 percent of the time (which is average), and your hand would win about 30 percent of the time.
The turn card is the offsuit queen (there are four suits on board – no flushes this hand). A bit of good news is that you now have the nut gutshot-straight draw (ace through 10). But the bad news is that you have not made your low yet, which now has about a 48 percent chance (21 out of 44 cards remaining), and even less if another A-2 is out (19 out of 42 cards).
The big blind bets $200! Now, it's a close decision between calling and folding, because of the likelihood that another A-2 is present. But, you decide to call, because your low draw has "backup," and because a king might scoop the whole pot.
The last card is an 8. At least you made a nut low and will get some money back. The big blind goes all in with his remaining $400 in chips. You must call, as does the before-the-flop raiser – who also has an A-2. The first player proudly tables his J-10-9-8, for half the pot. You get back about $580 of the $760 you put in – unlucky.
When you have an ABC hand, most fourth cards will make a hand without strong high potential. Since most pot-limit pots involve only a few players, a lack of high potential seriously reduces the effectiveness of going low (which might not make it). Note that a pot-size bet on the turn often makes even the best low draws unprofitable. That usually suggests a strategy of not raising early (to keep the pot size smaller), until you actually make your nut low.
But if you do make a nut low early, on the flop or turn, especially when you also have the "extension card" (the 3 in the above hand allows you to keep the nut low even if an ace or deuce appears on the river; that is, your hand is "uncounterfeitable"), it is often right to pressure the (non-nut) high players. If you have some high potential (such as a high pair), you might make pot-size bets or raises (and risk "getting quartered") to muscle out the non-nut highs. It is not unusual for one of the two nut lows to win high with a small pair.
All in all, although an ABC hand is obviously a good starting hand in any kind of Omaha high-low game, you must understand that the potential value of low is proportional to the number of players in the pot.