Poker Hand Matchup: Kristen Foxen Turns Top Pair Into A Bluff

Outcome

Preflop: With four players remaining and blinds of 30,000-60,000 with a big blind ante of 60,000, David Coleman raised to 120,000 from the button with 10♥5♥. Kristen Foxen defended the big blind with A♣8♠.

Flop: 9♣6♣5♠

Foxen checked, and Coleman checked.

Turn: A♦

Both players checked again.

River: 10♠

Foxen bet 165,000, and Coleman raised to 575,000. Foxen three-bet to 1,200,000, and Coleman folded.

Analysis

The $26,000 finale of the U.S. Poker Open was down to four players from a field of 48. Everyone left was guaranteed at least $126,000, with $420,000 awaiting the winner.

The payout structure and chip distribution put chip leader David Coleman in an excellent position against Kristen Foxen. He held about half of the chips, and she was well clear of the fourth-place stack, who had under 10 big blinds. That meant Coleman had free reign to open about as wide as he pleased from the button, and Foxen had to be pretty careful from the big blind, playing hardly any three-bets.

The solver does like three-bet shoving some mediocre offsuit ace-high hands in this setup to balance its strong jams with A-K and A-Q offsuit, but Foxen took the more conservative approach as she defended.

Things went off the solver grid after the flop, as Coleman was supposed to use that same leverage that allowed him to open wide to make a continuation bet. While this board texture appears to favor the big blind, it’s important to remember that Coleman had all of the nutted hands in his range because he could open all of the 8-7 combos as well as hands that make two pair.

Following the same leverage principle, Coleman could have also bet the turn. As played, when the players reached the river, Foxen correctly bet with her top pair. Coleman had played his hand like he had strong Broadways or a weak pair that wanted to show down. Given that he was near the top of his range and beating value with his two pair, he opted to raise.

Foxen was in a pickle with a hand that was indifferent, meaning no option she could choose was significantly better than the others. But she ended up finding a very creative three-bet bluff with a hand that blocked a lot of value.

The solver likes three-betting for value with holdings as weak as A-5 after the flop and turn check through, so her range wasn’t as polar as it might have appeared. Coleman must have understood that, which explains why he folded a hand that was quite strong in that same line. While Coleman may have erred on the flop and turn, his river fold was fine, and he recovered to win the tournament despite getting outmaneuvered by Foxen in this hand.

Coleman banked $420,000 for the win, making the most of his lone cash of the series. The 33-year-old New Jersey native now has $18.7 million in career earnings, along with six PokerGO Tour titles.

Despite finishing runner-up for $264,000, Foxen was the biggest winner of the series overall, having also taken down event no. 4 for her fifth career PGT title. She also finished ninth in event no. 1, bringing her total haul for the series to $475,950. She now has $17.2 million in lifetime tournament earnings, by far the most on the all-time women’s money list.

• Photos by PokerGO – Antonio Abrego