Poker Hand Matchup: Inducing A Raise With A Boat

Outcome

Preflop: On day 3, with an eight-handed table and blinds of 3,000-6,000 with a big blind ante of 6,000, Alex Foxen raised to 12,000 from under the gun with Q♣5♣. Pedro Neves called in the big blind with Q♥Q♠.

Flop: 8♣8♥5♦

Neves checked, and Foxen bet 8,000. Neves called.

Turn: 6♣

Neves checked, and Foxen checked behind.

River: Q♦

Neves bet 13,000, and Foxen raised to 63,000. Neves three-bet to 190,000, and Foxen called.

Analysis

On the last level of day 3 in the World Series of Poker main event, the players were getting close to the money with 1,382 places paid.

Alex Foxen held a massive stack of more than 150 big blinds, and he opened under the gun with a hand that’s much wider than a solver range. However, he covered the table and was in a good spot to try to sweep up chips with the bubble looming.

Pedro Neves was the only player with a comparable stack to Foxen’s, and he woke up with queens in the big blind. At these deep stacks, especially near the bubble and covered, flatting queens was the standard play. Even pocket kings are supposed to mix some calls at stacks north of 125 blinds deep.

Neves could have check-raised the flop with his overpair, but against an aggressive pro like Foxen willing to leverage the bubble, that could put him in some tough turn and river spots. Calling was a fine option.

Foxen turned a flush draw and chose to check back. Betting wouldn’t garner much value from worse hands, and being check-raised would have been uncomfortable with a draw that could be dead against several full houses.

Neves hit his disguised full house on the river and chose a small size. That’s a common mechanic in a spot like this, where the player has a nutted hand that unblocks some raises (in this case, 8-X), from the opponent. Betting small to set up a three-bet has more potential to create a big pot than either betting big or check-raising. The plan worked to perfection, as Foxen raised for value with his top pair.

Facing the three-bet, Foxen had to decide whether Neves could have three-bet bluffs. Hands like 7-6 and pocket sevens could have made some sense in that line. He wound up paying it off and seeing the bad news, ceding the table chip lead to Neves.

Neves made it into the money, banking $27,500 for a 606th-place finish.

Foxen wound up in 263rd place, cashing for $50,000 and adding to a stellar summer as a top POY contender. He made five final tables, including a third-place finish in the $25,000 heads-up championship. Foxen also earned his fourth career bracelet, while his wife Kristen won her sixth.

The WSOP main event final table will play out in August, with the winner set to receive $10 million.

• Photos by WSOP – Tyler Abrams