Alan Keating and Nikhil “Nik Airball” Arcot are arguably the two most popular fixtures on Hustler Casino Live. The two clashed on the third and final day of the stream’s Million Dollar Cash Game III in an epic $1.6 million pot that sent the poker world abuzz.
While the two are most known for their high-stakes bluffs, once in a great while, they pull off insane hero calls that few of us could ever stomach. In this case, Keating made that stomach-wrenching call.
Action
The table was playing seven-handed with blinds of $500-$1,000 with a $2,000 big blind ante and a $2,000 under-the-gun straddle. Arcot raised to $6,000 from the lojack with 6
5 and Keating called from the big blind with 8
4
.
The flop was 8
43. Arcot bet $5,000 and Keating raised to $35,000. Arcot called.
The turn was the 3. Keating bet $60,000. Arcot raised to $230,000 and Keating called.
The river brought the A. Arcot bet $525,000. Keating called.
Keating won a $1,600,000 pot with two pair.
Analysis
It’s not often you see a single-raised pot explode for 1,600 big blinds, but it was bound to get juicy after this flop.
Preflop, Arcot had a suited connector, and in a high VPIP game with very deep stacks, this is a great hand to have as it unblocks a lot of 3-bet bluffs and is very capable of cracking strong preflop holdings. In a 200 big blind cash game, it’s an optional zero EV open. Thus, in a game like this, it should be opened every single time.
Keating is always one to get crazy with absolute dust and found a way to call with eight-four offsuit out of position. There’s no strategy whatsoever here. It’s a reckless gamble. Nothing more, nothing less.
The flop could not have been more juicy as Keating flopped two pair while Arcot picked up an open-ended straight flush draw. In a normal cash game, stacks could easily get in the middle on the flop. But because stacks were so deep, Arcot opted to call the flop instead of three-betting.
In this instance, Arcot was 49% to win, according to the Card Player Poker Odds Calculator, and would be far from dead no matter what Keating had. Arcot would certainly be behind or flipping in any instance where Keating has a strong hand and the stacks get in, so there’d be no point in playing for stacks just yet.
The board-pairing 3 is quite interesting, as any of Arcot’s overpairs would now trump Keating’s flopped two pair. Both players could also have all the boats and quads given the loose nature of this game, so the ranges are quite merged.
Arcot couldn’t win the pot with six-high and wouldn’t put Keating on many 3x combos, so he went for the turn raise here to apply max pressure. Most of the time, he’d also be drawing to the winner. The biggest issue with his raise is Arcot is unlikely to raise the turn with an overpair. As a result, Keating can disregard a vital part of his range to be concerned about.
Keating blocked all of the full houses with his eight-four, so it’s safe to assume that he’s a non-believer on the turn. A three-bet jam made little sense unless he’s putting Arcot on exactly what he had and wanted to deny equity. He’d only ever get called by better, though.
The A completed the board and Arcot put out a pot-size bet. Keating could have been realistically concerned about ace-three but given that he double-blocks the pocket eights and the pocket fours that Arcot could have been representing, he wouldn’t be running into too many value hands. He also unblocked diamonds, so Arcot had many more bluffs than value in his range.
Keating went into the tank for over five minutes and eventually made the right decision, stunning his tablemates and the entire poker world in the process. He took down a juicy $1,600,000 pot, easily winning the hand of the night.
