Poker Hand Matchup: Daniel Cates vs. Clemen Deng

Outcome

Preflop, with eight players remaining and blinds of 125,000-250,000 with a big blind ante of 250,000, Clemen Deng raised to 500,000 from under the gun. Daniel Cates called from the big blind. On the flop Cates checked, and Deng bet 350,000. Cates called. On the turn both players checked. On the river Cates checked, and Deng bet 1,500,000. Cates check-raised to 5,800,000, and Deng called.

Analysis

Clemen Deng and Dan “Jungleman” Cates squared off in a hand that severely shifted the final table dynamics. On the flop, Deng went with about a 25% continuation bet and Cates called. Deng could have used a larger c-bet sizing on this board, targeting Cates’ many K-X and Q-X holdings. Even though Cates’ defending range is stronger than it would be in chipEV (expected value of stack) play, he still shouldn’t have many two pair combos. Given Deng’s range advantage, he should push his equity. Cates hit the jackpot when an offsuit 10 arrived on the turn. Deng would stay away from the immediate damage by checking back. Deng’s bet/check line would certainly be a disaster in chipEV play, but in this high-ICM spot with naked aces on a very wet board, it makes sense that he isn’t eager to put all his chips in the middle. Checking with an overpair and a gutshot straight draw is a great way to control the pot. Even though he’s capped his range, he’s at the very top of his capped range. On the river, Cates showed his read on the situation and put in a check. He knew that there was no way Deng would check the turn with hands like K-Q, sets, and straights, so he’s not behind. Cates also knew that hands that checked back the turn like A-K, A-A, and K-J, are absolutely going to fire on the river. After capping himself on the turn, Deng put in a bet of nearly 75% pot, which put his hand face-up as A-K, A-A, or a bluff. Bluffs were a bit less likely, considering three high cards were there by the turn, so hands like underpairs would certainly be bluffing on the turn instead of delaying until the river. Cates sized up to a whopping 5.8 million, targeting worse value hands. Cates had attempted a river bluff against Deng’s aces earlier, which may have been fresh on his opponent’s mind. Deng made the call and fell down to under four big blinds.